Brewers vs Padres Prediction: Game 4 Pick & Best Bet

Milwaukee and San Diego meet Wednesday night at Petco Park for Game 4 of the NLDS, with the Brewers leading the series 2-1. First pitch is scheduled for 10:00 PM EST. After three straight low-scoring, one-run games, KofSports is going right back to the total for Game 4.

KofSports Brewers vs Padres Game 4 Pick: Under 7.5

The first three games of this series have all stayed at 7 combined runs or fewer, finishing 3-2, 4-3, and 4-3. That makes 7.5 an attractive number because another 4-3 game still gets us to the window. The games have been competitive enough that neither offense has been able to create much separation and both managers have every incentive to be aggressive with their pitching staffs in a postseason elimination setting.

Walker Buehler Has a Favorable Number Against Milwaukee

Walker Buehler gets the ball for San Diego. His 4.63 regular-season ERA is enough to create some hesitation but his second half was considerably steadier: MLB lists a 3.62 ERA across 13 second-half starts and San Diego went 10-3 in those outings. Buehler also brings extensive postseason experience carrying a 3.04 ERA across 19 career playoff appearances into Game 4. We don't need vintage Buehler here; we need him to keep Milwaukee from putting together a crooked inning before San Diego can turn the game over to its bullpen.

Robert Gasser Was Excellent Down the Stretch

Milwaukee will counter with left-hander Robert Gasser and his recent form fits the Under case. Gasser posted a 1.67 ERA over his final six outings of the regular season. Over 32 1/3 innings beginning August 26, he struck out 31 while walking 12. Milwaukee can also structure the game around matchups and lean on a rested relief corps rather than asking Gasser to work deep if San Diego begins to square him up.

The Bullpens Keep the Under in Play

This series has already shown how quickly both managers will go to their best available arms. Milwaukee entered Game 4 with rested late-inning options after Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill did not pitch in Game 3. San Diego used Michael King for the final six outs of Game 3 but Mason Miller's potential return would strengthen the Padres' late-inning options. With the Brewers trying to close the series and San Diego facing elimination, there is little reason for either manager to leave a struggling pitcher on the mound for an extra inning.

Brewers vs Padres Prediction

BEST BET: Brewers vs Padres Under 7.5. We have three straight games in this series finishing with 7 runs or fewer, a veteran postseason starter in Buehler who pitched better during the second half, Gasser entering off a 1.67 ERA over his final 6 outings, and two managers with every reason to shorten the game with their bullpens. The 7.5 is important — another 4-3 final cashes the ticket. KofSports projected score: Padres 4, Brewers 2.

Brewers vs Padres on Polymarket

Prediction-market pricing can provide another way to evaluate how the market is viewing Game 4. View the latest Brewers vs Padres markets on Polymarket through KofSports. Prices can move throughout the day and should be treated as market-implied probabilities rather than guaranteed forecasts.

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Betting lines and market prices can move before first pitch. Recheck the total before placing a wager and avoid chasing the Under if the market moves through a key number.