Celtics vs Pistons Player Props: 3 Picks for October 20

Our Celtics vs Pistons player props picks for Tuesday’s NBA opener target Jayson Tatum on the glass, Ausar Thompson’s rebound under, and Duncan Robinson from 3-point range. The 3 markets offer a mix of an over, an under and a plus-money shooting selection.

Celtics vs Pistons player props: October 20 picks

Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds (-121)

Ausar Thompson Under 6.5 rebounds (-105)

Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 made threes (+114)

DraftKings lines and odds were checked on the live KofSports NBA Player Prop Trends page Monday night, October 19. These are opening-night selections for Tuesday, October 20. The historical samples below are not 2026–27 regular-season records; the public board does not identify their game dates or game types. Confirm current availability and expected minutes before betting.

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Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds (-121)

Tatum is our preferred Boston selection at the current threshold. His 5-game rebound history is 13, 5, 13, 11, and 18, giving him 4 results above 8.5. Every over reached double digits which is more encouraging than a sample of narrow 9-rebound finishes.

He needs 9 rebounds to clear this line. We prefer this market to requiring a high scoring total because Tatum’s rebounding lines are underrated and his game log is proof of that.

At -121, the break-even rate is 54.8%. The historical 4-of-5 result supports examining the over, but Boston’s new rotation means we still need a normal workload. Pick: Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds at -121.

Ausar Thompson Under 6.5 rebounds (-105)

Thompson’s rebound under has the cleanest short-sample consistency on this card. His 5-game history is 5, 5, 4, 3, and 5. All 5 results finished below 6.5, with none reaching 6.

That leaves room for Thompson to collect 6 rebounds and still stay under. At -105, the break-even rate is 51.2%, giving us a relatively modest price for the selected side.

The concern is a change in role. Extra minutes, more time near the basket or an unusually high number of misses could lift his total. We are backing the posted threshold, not assuming the last 5 games define his ceiling. Pick: Thompson Under 6.5 rebounds at -105.

Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 made threes (+114)

Robinson brings the plus-money option. His 5-game history from beyond the arc is 1, 3, 4, 3, and 3 made threes. That is 4 overs at a line requiring 3 makes.

The margin is thin in 3 of those successful games, which is why we want the +114 price. Its break-even rate is 46.7%. An over at 3.5 would have hit only once in the same sample, so this recommendation stays specifically at 2.5.

Three-point props rely on both attempts and accuracy. Confirm Robinson’s expected role before tipoff; a reduced workload would weaken the pick even if the historical hit rate looks attractive. Pick: Robinson Over 2.5 made threes at +114.

What could change these opening-night picks?

Opening night can bring new starting combinations and different minute distributions. Tatum’s workload, Thompson’s rebounding role, and Robinson’s shot volume matter more than treating historical results as automatic repeats. If a line moves materially or a role changes, reassess the selection.

These are 3 individual selections. Props in the same game can share exposure to pace, shooting efficiency and rotation decisions, so the article is not a recommendation to combine all 3 into a parlay.

How to use the player prop trends

A hit rate compares historical game totals with the current line. It does not mean the player covered the actual closing line in those games, and it is not a forecast of tonight’s win probability. We use the results to identify candidates, then weigh the price and the player’s expected opportunity.

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