Lions vs. Bills Anytime TD Scorer Picks: Best Bets & TD Parlay for TNF

Thursday Night Football gives us one of the most appealing touchdown markets of Week 2 as the Detroit Lions visit the Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. EST Thursday night. Instead of simply looking at the shortest anytime touchdown odds, we're using the KofSports Anytime TD Scorer Tool to compare touchdown probability, market price and our proprietary KOF TD Score.

That gives us several ways to attack Thursday's market — from the most likely touchdown scorer on the board to plus-money options, a longer-shot play and a touchdown parlay. All odds below are from the KofSports tool at the time of writing and can move before kickoff. Always shop around for the best available price.

Lions vs. Bills Anytime TD Rankings

The KofSports model clearly separates Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Allen from the rest of Thursday's field. Gibbs ranks No. 1 with an 87.2 Elite KOF TD Score, followed closely by Allen at 85.6. Amon-Ra St. Brown checks in at 77.0, James Cook at 68.1 and Sam LaPorta at 66.6.

At the time of our tool snapshot, Gibbs was -250 with a 75.3% model TD probability, Allen +115 at 48.8%, St. Brown +155 at 45.5%, Cook +110 at 57.0% and LaPorta +340 at 27.6%. Those prices give us several different ways to approach the market depending on risk tolerance.

Highest-Probability TD Scorer: Jahmyr Gibbs (-250)

KOF TD Score: 87.2 — ELITE | Model TD Probability: 75.3%

There isn't much mystery surrounding the top of our rankings. Jahmyr Gibbs owns the highest KOF TD Score in the entire Lions-Bills matchup at 87.2. The downside is the price: Gibbs was -250 in our tool when we captured the data, so bettors are paying heavily for his touchdown probability.

That makes Gibbs difficult to recommend as a standalone wager at any price, but his combination of workload, scoring equity and Detroit's offensive environment makes him an ideal building block for a touchdown parlay.

KofSports Verdict

Gibbs is our highest-probability scorer but we'd rather use him as a parlay piece than lay a massive standalone price. At -250 or worse, you're paying for that probability.

Best Anytime TD Bet: Josh Allen (+115)

KOF TD Score: 85.6 — ELITE | Model TD Probability: 48.8%

This is where the board gets much more interesting. Gibbs barely edges Allen in KOF TD Score, 87.2 to 85.6, but the price difference in our snapshot is enormous. Allen was available at +115 when captured by the KofSports tool.

Allen's rushing ability effectively gives bettors multiple paths to a touchdown. Buffalo can call his number near the goal line and he can also turn a passing play into a rushing score when the pocket breaks down. That makes him one of the league's most unusual touchdown bets because quarterback rushing usage can directly compete with Buffalo's running backs for goal-line opportunities.

KofSports Verdict

Josh Allen is our favorite combination of KOF Score and price if you can still find plus money. If the market moves significantly beyond the price shown in our tool, reassess rather than blindly chasing it.

Plus-Money Option: Amon-Ra St. Brown (+155)

KOF TD Score: 77.0 — STRONG | Model TD Probability: 45.5%

If you're looking for a Detroit receiving touchdown rather than laying the Gibbs price, Amon-Ra St. Brown is where our model points. His 77.0 KOF TD Score is the third-highest score among the players shown for this matchup and comfortably lands in our Strong tier.

More importantly, the price offers a completely different risk-reward profile. Rather than laying -250 with Gibbs, our tool had St. Brown at +155. In a matchup expected to create plenty of scoring opportunities, St. Brown gives us exposure to Detroit's passing game at plus money.

KofSports Verdict

Amon-Ra is our preferred plus-money Detroit receiving option. The KOF model likes his touchdown outlook considerably more than Jameson Williams, who checks in at a 43.7 KOF TD Score.

Longshot Anytime TD Pick: Sam LaPorta (+340)

KOF TD Score: 66.6 — ABOVE AVERAGE | Model TD Probability: 27.6%

Now we're looking for price. Sam LaPorta doesn't have the touchdown probability of Gibbs, Allen or St. Brown, but he doesn't need to at +340. LaPorta's 66.6 KOF TD Score lands in our Above Average tier, making him one of the more intriguing players once we move into longer odds.

There's also an interesting comparison within the tight end market. Buffalo's Dalton Kincaid sits at a 59.0 KOF TD Score and 27.2% model probability, while LaPorta comes in higher at 66.6 and 27.6%. With LaPorta priced at +340 in our snapshot, the payout compensates us for taking on considerably more variance than the top options.

KofSports Verdict

LaPorta is our favorite longer-shot option at +300 or better. We're accepting considerably more variance, but that's exactly what we're being compensated for with the price.

What About James Cook?

James Cook deserves attention at +110 with a 68.1 Above Average KOF TD Score and a 57.0% model touchdown probability. That model probability ranks extremely well, but Cook also has to contend with one of football's most dangerous goal-line quarterbacks.

Buffalo can move the ball behind Cook and then turn to Allen's legs once it reaches scoring territory. Cook is absolutely playable, but given the numbers shown in our tool, we prefer Allen when comparable plus-money prices are available.

KofSports TNF Anytime TD Parlay

If we're building a touchdown parlay, we don't want to jam three longshots together simply because the payout looks exciting. Start with the model's two highest-rated scorers: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD + Josh Allen Anytime TD.

Gibbs and Allen own KOF TD Scores of 87.2 and 85.6, respectively — the only two Elite ratings among the players shown for Thursday night. For a more aggressive version, add Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD to create a three-leg touchdown parlay.

Because sportsbook parlay pricing varies and the individual lines can move quickly, check the live combined odds before placing either version rather than relying on a static payout quoted here.

Try the KofSports Anytime TD Scorer Tool

These picks came directly from the same research tool available on KofSports. Instead of scrolling through a sportsbook and guessing who might score, the KofSports Anytime TD Scorer Tool ranks players using our proprietary KOF TD Score while showing current anytime touchdown odds, model touchdown probability, multiple sportsbook prices and player-by-player breakdowns.

Try the KofSports Anytime TD Scorer Tool and see the full Lions vs. Bills rankings before kickoff.

Lions vs. Bills Anytime TD Picks: Final Card

Highest Probability: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD
Best Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD — target plus money
Plus-Money WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD
Longshot: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD — +300 or better
TD Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs + Josh Allen
Aggressive TD Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs + Josh Allen + Amon-Ra St. Brown

The important part is price discipline. Touchdown markets can move quickly as kickoff approaches. Gibbs can be an outstanding touchdown candidate without being worth betting at any number, and Allen is much more attractive at plus money than after a significant move into minus money. Use the KOF rankings to identify the players we like, then shop for the price that makes the wager worthwhile.