Miami vs Notre Dame Pick & Prediction: College Football, November 7

Our Miami vs Notre Dame prediction for Saturday, November 7, 2026 backs Miami to win outright, with a projected final score of Miami 31, Notre Dame 27. Losing Malachi Toney is a major setback, but Darian Mensah’s efficiency and Miami’s running game give the Hurricanes a path to winning in South Bend.

Miami enters 8-0 and Notre Dame is 7-1. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, with coverage on NBC and Peacock.

Miami vs Notre Dame pick and odds

Best bet: Miami moneyline. Score prediction: Miami 31, Notre Dame 27. Check the current moneyline before betting; prices can change. The recommendation is an outright Miami win.

Toney’s absence changes the matchup

Malachi Toney (Miami Hurricanes) is out of this matchup following a high ankle injury in practice. Reports say he needs surgery. His absence removes a major part of Miami’s passing offense and creates a genuine test for the remaining receivers.

The upset case starts with Miami adapting its offense around Mensah’s accuracy and its running backs. Sustaining drives through those strengths could keep the Hurricanes from depending on a direct replacement for Toney’s explosive production.

Notre Dame can devote more attention to Miami’s remaining threats, and stalled drives are a real risk. Miami needs its remaining receivers to win against the Irish’s depleted coverage group while its running game keeps the offense out of predictable passing situations.

Mensah gives Miami a path to the upset

Darian Mensah (Miami Hurricanes) has completed 80.7% of his passes for 2,425 yards, 25 touchdowns and 1 interception. Miami averages 534.9 yards and 47.6 points per game, although those season figures largely reflect an offense with Toney available.

Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami Hurricanes) have each rushed for more than 450 yards and have combined for 16 touchdowns. An efficient run game could help Miami avoid asking the replacement receiving group to carry the entire offense.

The Irish allow 13.4 points per game. CJ Carr (Notre Dame Fighting Irish) has thrown for 1,849 yards and 18 touchdowns, giving Notre Dame its own route to sustaining drives and controlling the game at home.

Notre Dame also has defensive absences

The Irish’s published availability report rules out linebacker Drayk Bowen, safety Brauntae Johnson and cornerback DJ McKinney. Defensive linemen Francis Brewu and Jason Onye are questionable. Check for any final updates before kickoff.

Those absences create some opportunity for Miami to attack the middle of the field and test replacement combinations. They do not cancel out Toney’s loss, but they make it harder to assume Notre Dame will control every matchup just because its season defensive numbers are excellent.

Notre Dame won 30-27 the last time it hosted Miami in 2016, while Miami took last season’s meeting 27-24. The current personnel and injuries matter far more than those historical results; our upset prediction rests on Miami’s remaining offensive options and the opportunities created by Notre Dame’s defensive absences.

Final prediction: Miami 31, Notre Dame 27

We expect Miami to win a close game behind Mensah’s decision-making and a balanced offensive approach. Notre Dame’s home advantage and strong defense make this a demanding test, but the Hurricanes have enough remaining production to earn the outright pick. Best bet: Miami moneyline.

The projected 58 points is a score forecast. Miami moneyline is the sole recommended wager in this preview.

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