MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets for September 8

MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets for September 8

We're targeting two plays on Tuesday's MLB slate using a combination of batter-vs-pitcher history and recent hitting trends.

Rather than laying north of -200 on individual hit props, we're looking for better ways to attack three hitters who stand out today. That gives us Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases at +132, plus a Jackson Chourio and Michael Harris II hit parlay at -109.

Here are our best MLB player props today for September 8.

Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132)

Nolan Arenado against Michael Wacha is one of the strongest batter-vs-pitcher matchups on today's board and we're taking the plus-money route rather than laying heavy juice for Arenado to record one hit.

Arenado is 11-for-22 against Wacha with four home runs. His history in the matchup translates to a massive 1.605 OPS, and Baseball Reference lists 25 career plate appearances between the two.

That's exactly the type of matchup we want when betting a total-bases prop.

A single won't get us there, but Arenado has already shown significant extra-base power against Wacha. 4 of his 11 career hits against him have left the yard, meaning this hasn't simply been a collection of singles accumulated over time.

There's also reason to like the broader Arizona matchup. Current Diamondbacks hitters have combined for a .333 average against Wacha, with strong underlying Statcast numbers including a .565 expected slugging percentage.

Wacha enters tonight's start at 9-8 with a 3.36 ERA and 143 strikeouts.

Arenado has also been seeing the ball well recently, giving us another reason to attack the more aggressive number rather than paying a premium for one hit.

The play: Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+132)

Jackson Chourio + Michael Harris II — 1+ Hit Each (-109)

Our second play takes two heavily juiced individual hit props and combines them into a much more playable -109 parlay.

Jackson Chourio 1+ Hit

Chourio gets David Peterson tonight and has already done plenty of damage against him.

He's 5-for-11 with a double and two home runs in the matchup. More importantly for this particular bet, we only need Chourio to record one hit.

The matchup history is backed by excellent recent form. Chourio has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 games, and he delivered a two-run single in Milwaukee's comeback win Monday night.

That follows a four-hit performance last week that included his 21st home run of the season.

With Chourio's recent consistency and previous success against Peterson, he's our first leg.

Michael Harris II 1+ Hit

Michael Harris II gives us the other half of the parlay.

Harris is 4-for-9 against Freddy Peralta in his career. All four hits have been singles, which actually fits exactly what we're asking him to do here: record one hit.

The bigger reason we like Harris is his recent consistency. He's hit safely in 18 of his last 22 games, giving us a strong current-form angle to combine with his previous success against today's starter.

Peralta enters the matchup at 7-11 with a 4.96 ERA and 140 strikeouts.

We don't need Harris to hit for power or pile up total bases. One ball finding grass gets his half of the job done.

The play: Jackson Chourio 1+ Hit + Michael Harris II 1+ Hit (-109)

Best MLB Player Props Today

Our card for September 8 comes down to two bets:

• Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+132)
• Jackson Chourio 1+ Hit + Michael Harris II 1+ Hit (-109)

Arenado is the higher-upside play. We're getting +132 on a hitter who has gone 11-for-22 with four home runs against today's starter.

The hit parlay takes a different approach. Chourio and Harris would be extremely expensive to bet individually, but combining the two gives us -109 while still allowing us to attack two hitters with both strong recent trends and favorable pitcher history.

Those are the two MLB player prop bets we're targeting today.

How We Research MLB Player Props

Batter-vs-pitcher numbers can be useful, but they shouldn't be treated as automatic betting signals.

We're looking for multiple factors lining up: the current prop and price, recent hitting form, career history against the opposing pitcher, power/contact profile and the specific type of prop we're betting.

Arenado is a good example. His matchup could support a basic hit prop, but laying more than -200 isn't attractive. Moving to Over 1.5 Total Bases at +132 gives us a price that better reflects the upside demonstrated by his four career home runs against Wacha.

The same principle applies to Chourio and Harris. Rather than laying massive prices on two separate hit props, combining them gives us a more reasonable number.

That's the type of price-sensitive approach we'll continue using when breaking down MLB player props today throughout the season.