2027 NBA MVP Predictions: Best Bets, Odds & Longshot Pick

Who should you bet to win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? The preseason market has a clear favorite in Victor Wembanyama but an MVP futures bet is ultimately a question of price. KofSports is looking beyond the shortest odds for candidates whose path to the award may be stronger than their current number implies.

The early board is led by Wembanyama around +200, followed by two-time defending MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander around +350 to +450, Nikola Jokic around +450 to +600 and Luka Doncic around +500 to +600. Jayson Tatum is available as high as +2000 at some books, which is where the board gets particularly interesting for us.

1. Victor Wembanyama: The Favorite

Wembanyama enters the season as the market favorite around +200 to +210. That price implies roughly a one-in-three chance after accounting for the market environment, and the case is easy to understand: he offers elite two-way impact and enters the season with the type of statistical ceiling that can dominate an MVP conversation.

Our hesitation is the price. At roughly 2-to-1, bettors are paying for a lot of Wembanyama’s upside before the season has even started. He may be the most likely individual winner, but most likely does not automatically mean best futures bet.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Can He Win Three Straight?

Gilgeous-Alexander sits in the next tier around +350 to +450 after winning MVP in each of the past two seasons. He has already proven he can pair elite individual production with the team success voters reward.

The question is whether the market is giving enough compensation for asking him to win a third consecutive MVP. Only a tiny group of players in league history have accomplished that feat. SGA belongs near the top of the board but the combination of a short price and an unusually difficult historical repeat makes him less attractive to us than a longer-priced candidate.

3. Nikola Jokic: The Perennial MVP Threat

Jokic remains impossible to ignore in any MVP discussion. The three-time winner enters the season around +500 to +600 at major sportsbooks and has established a statistical profile that can put him in the race virtually every year. His combination of scoring, rebounding, and playmaking gives Denver an MVP candidate with very few weaknesses.

The issue for us is again the price. Jokic absolutely belongs among the leading candidates but at roughly 5-to-1 we are paying a premium for an established contender. For a preseason futures ticket, we prefer looking farther down the board for a player whose potential path to the award is priced much more aggressively.

4. Jayson Tatum at 20/1: KofSports' Favorite Value

Our favorite early NBA MVP futures value is Jayson Tatum at +2000 where that number is available. A 20-to-1 price implies only about a 4.8% break-even probability before considering hold. We think his realistic path to winning the award is better than that.

Tatum has already established the résumé of a legitimate MVP candidate. In 2024-25 he averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists, made First Team All-NBA, and finished fourth in MVP voting. He returned late last season after his injury-shortened year and he enters 2026-27 healthy with Boston's offense once again centered around him.

There is also a compelling narrative component. Tatum is beginning his first fully healthy season since the Achilles injury that ended his 2025 postseason. Oh, and the elephant in the room, Boston moved Jaylen Brown during the offseason which make Tatum the true number 1 option with much more upside for the first time in his career. If Tatum returns to his pre-injury production—or exceeds it—while carrying Boston to one of the East's best records, the combination of statistics, team success, workload and comeback narrative could create a very strong MVP case. He will average a triple double.

KofSports NBA MVP Prediction

Best value bet: Jayson Tatum to win 2026-27 NBA MVP at +2000. Wembanyama is the rightful favorite and SGA is one of the safest names on the board but futures betting is about probability relative to price. We would rather take Tatum at 20-to-1 than pay roughly +200 for Wembanyama before the season begins.

The biggest requirement is availability. MVP eligibility requires players to satisfy the league's games-played criteria and Tatum's case also likely needs Boston near the top of the Eastern Conference. This is not a prediction that Tatum is the most likely winner; it is our view that his current price offers the best risk-to-reward profile among the contenders we're highlighting.

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When Should You Bet NBA MVP Futures?

Preseason futures offer the longest runway for a thesis to play out but prices can change quickly once games begin. If Tatum opens the season healthy and Boston wins at a high rate, a 20-to-1 number will not last. The opposite is also true: injuries, poor team performance, or a slow individual start can push a futures price longer.

That is why we'll continue updating the MVP race as the season develops rather than treating a preseason ticket as a static prediction. For now, Wembanyama is the market favorite, SGA is the accomplished challenger, and Tatum is the KofSports value play at +2000.