NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: 5 Best Week 1 Picks

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: 5 Best Week 1 Picks

The first full Sunday of the NFL season is here, which means one of football's most popular betting markets is back: Anytime Touchdown Scorers.

But finding the best anytime touchdown scorer bets isn't as simple as picking the biggest names on the board.

Jahmyr Gibbs currently sits at the top of the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings with an elite 86.3 KOF Score, but the best available price on our board is -315. That's an implied probability of roughly 76%.

Could Gibbs score? Absolutely. In fact, our rankings identify him as the strongest overall touchdown profile on the slate. Good parlay piece for those of you who do that stuff.

But probability and betting value aren't the same thing.

For our Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Scorer predictions, we're digging deeper into the KofSports rankings to find players who combine a strong touchdown profile with a price we're actually willing to bet.

Here are five players that stand out.

How We Pick Our Anytime Touchdown Scorers

The KofSports Anytime TD Rankings evaluate the NFL touchdown market using more than touchdown history alone.

Every player receives a proprietary KOF TD Score from 0–100 based on six factors: betting market expectations, red-zone opportunity, overall usage, recent form, matchup and the team's projected scoring environment.

Market pricing and red-zone opportunity each account for a percentage of the model, usage and recent form account for a percentage each, while matchup and scoring environment account for certain percentage each.

The important distinction is that KOF Score is not a touchdown probability.

An 85 KOF Score doesn't mean a player has an 85% chance to score. Instead, it gives us a way to compare scoring profiles across the entire slate and then determine whether the sportsbook price provides enough value to make a bet.

That's exactly what we're doing with these five selections.

1. Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown (-125)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

KOF TD Score: 86 — ELITE

Saquon Barkley gives us arguably the best combination of elite KOF Score and playable price anywhere near the top of the Week 1 board.

Barkley ranks No. 2 overall in the current KofSports Anytime TD Rankings with an 85.4 KOF Score, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs. The difference is that instead of laying more than three units to win one on Gibbs, our odds comparison is finding Barkley at just -125.

There's also recent matchup history working in our favor. Barkley ran 21 times for 132 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Week 16 last season. He also has a history of producing immediately to start a season, scoring six touchdowns across eight career Week 1 appearances.

The concern when betting any Eagles running back near the goal line is obvious: Jalen Hurts can always take the touchdown himself.

But that's already part of the price.

At -125, we're getting the No. 2 touchdown profile in the entire KOF model without paying anything close to the price attached to Gibbs.

KofSports Pick: Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-125)

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints

KOF TD Score: 79.4 — STRONG

This is where the board starts getting interesting.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks seventh overall in our current Week 1 rankings with a 79.4 KOF Score, yet we're still able to get him at +110.

St. Brown is coming off an 11-touchdown season, but it's his red-zone involvement that makes this particularly appealing. He accounted for roughly 41.5% of Detroit's red-zone targets in 2025, while New Orleans surrendered 25 passing touchdowns last season.

He wasn't just piling up empty yardage, either. St. Brown recorded multiple-touchdown games against Chicago, Cleveland, and the Rams and found the end zone in several other matchups throughout the season.

The comparison with Gibbs is exactly why we built the KOF rankings.

Our model loves Gibbs. He's No. 1 overall.

But we're being asked to lay -315.

St. Brown gives us another elite weapon in the same Detroit offense at +110, while still carrying one of the strongest overall KOF Scores on the slate.

At plus money, that's a much more attractive wager.

KofSports Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+110)

Find the Best Anytime TD Scorers With KofSports

Want to research the entire Week 1 touchdown board?

The KofSports NFL Anytime Touchdown Rankings compare more than 300 players across the slate using current touchdown odds, red-zone opportunity, player usage, recent role, matchup data, scoring environment and our proprietary KOF TD Score.

Instead of blindly betting the shortest odds, use the rankings to identify which players combine a strong scoring profile with a price worth considering.

→ Explore the NFL Anytime Touchdown Rankings

3. Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+175)

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

KOF TD Score: 75.3 — STRONG

Malik Nabers comes with more uncertainty than our first two selections, but +175 is exactly the type of price that gets our attention.

Nabers currently carries a 75.3 KOF Score while our odds comparison is finding +175 for him to score against Dallas. The wider market also has him around +175, implying a scoring probability of roughly 36%.

Then there's what happened the last time he played Dallas.

Nabers exploded for 9 catches, 167 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns against the Cowboys in Week 2 last season. He's now averaged nearly 100 receiving yards across his first three career meetings with Dallas.

There is one major caveat here: his status needs to be monitored before betting.

Nabers is returning from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season. Although he participated fully in practice Wednesday and Thursday, Nabers said Friday that he still has to weigh whether he's ready to perform at game speed and doesn't want to jeopardize his long-term health by returning too soon.

So this is explicitly a play-if-active-and-unrestricted selection.

If Nabers gets the green light and we're comfortable that he's going to play his normal role, we're willing to take +175 on the Giants' most dangerous receiving weapon against a Dallas secondary playing its first regular-season game in a revamped defensive system.

KofSports Pick: Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+175) — if active without significant restriction

4. George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+160)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

KOF TD Score: 74.3 — ABOVE AVERAGE

George Pickens doesn't carry one of the very highest KOF Scores on our Week 1 board, but this is where price starts creating opportunity.

Pickens checks in with a 74.3 KOF Score, while the KofSports odds comparison is currently finding +160 at FanDuel.

That's significant because other available markets have Pickens closer to +135. Getting +160 instead of +135 might not look dramatic at first glance, but that's exactly why shopping touchdown prices across sportsbooks matters.

Pickens is coming off an excellent first season in Dallas. He finished 2025 with 93 receptions for 1,429 yards and 9 touchdowns, averaging more than 84 receiving yards per game and earning his first Pro Bowl selection.

CeeDee Lamb obviously commands a massive role of his own which prevents Pickens from carrying the same raw touchdown probability as some of the running backs above him in our rankings.

But that competition is also part of why we're getting +160 rather than an odds-on price.

We're getting a receiver who scored 9 times last season, possesses legitimate downfield, contested-catch ability, and sits inside the upper tier of our model at better than +150.

That's enough value for us.

KofSports Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD (+160)

5. Colston Loveland Anytime Touchdown (+200)

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

KOF TD Score: 73.9 — ABOVE AVERAGE

Our final selection might be my favorite longer-priced play of the five.

Colston Loveland is sitting around the edge of the top 15 on the board with a KOF Score in the mid-70s while the sportsbooks best price is +200.

Loveland's rookie season gives us a legitimate reason to believe the touchdown role can grow.

The former first-round pick finished 2025 with 58 receptions for 713 yards and 6 touchdowns despite starting only 11 games. More importantly, his production accelerated late in the year.

Loveland scored 4 touchdowns over his final 7 regular-season games, including touchdowns in each of Chicago's final two games. He finished Week 18 against Detroit with 10 receptions for 91 yards and a score after producing 6 catches for 94 yards and another touchdown the previous week against San Francisco.

That's exactly the type of late-season role development we want to identify entering a new year.

And the matchup has already generated attention around Chicago because of the difficulty Carolina may have matching up with Loveland.

We're not asking Loveland to score at an odds-on price.

At +200, the bet only needs to hit one out of every three times to break even before accounting for vig.

For a second-year tight end who finished his rookie season playing some of his best football, that's a price we're willing to take.

KofSports Pick: Colston Loveland Anytime TD (+200)

NFL Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Player

Matchup

Best Odds*

KOF TD Score*

Saquon Barkley

PHI vs. WAS

-125

86

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET vs. NO

+110

79.4

Malik Nabers

NYG vs. DAL

+175

75.3

George Pickens

DAL vs. NYG

+160

74.3

Colston Loveland

CHI vs. CAR

+200

73.9

*Odds and KOF Scores can change as sportsbook markets update. Always check the live KofSports rankings and shop around for the best available price before betting.

Why Jahmyr Gibbs Isn't One of Our Five Picks

This is the perfect example of how we want bettors to use the KOF TD Rankings.

Jahmyr Gibbs currently ranks No. 1 overall with an 86.3 KOF Score.

So why isn't he one of our picks?

Price.

The best price currently captured by KofSports is -315.

At -315, the implied probability is approximately 75.9%.

Compare that with Amon-Ra St. Brown.

St. Brown has a lower—but still strong—79.2 KOF Score while being available at +110, an implied probability below 50%.

We're not saying St. Brown is more likely to score than Gibbs.

He isn't.

We're saying the question bettors should ask isn't simply:

"Who is most likely to score?"

It's:

"Is the probability of this player scoring greater than the probability implied by the price I'm being asked to pay?"

That's the distinction between identifying likely outcomes and identifying potential betting value.

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