NFL Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: 3 Best Week 4 Value Picks

The top of the KofSports Week 4 Anytime TD Rankings is loaded with short-priced running backs, but laying -200 to -300 on a single touchdown scorer isn't the kind of value we're looking for with our three straight plays. For this week's card, we're moving down the board to players who still grade strongly in the KOF model while offering much more attractive prices.

Our three Week 4 straight-play selections are Tyler Warren, Rashee Rice and Nico Collins. All three sit inside the top 18 of the current KOF Anytime TD Rankings, all three are available at plus money on the KofSports board, and each gives us a better risk-to-reward profile than simply betting the three biggest favorites.

1. Tyler Warren Anytime TD (+190) vs. Washington

Tyler Warren is the value play that jumps off the KofSports board. He ranks No. 9 overall with an 80.8 KOF Score while still paying +190. His KOF breakdown is especially strong where we want it for touchdown research: a 98.3 Red Zone score, 94.7 Usage score and 89.2 Matchup score.

The underlying opportunity supports the model. KofSports has tracked three red-zone targets for Warren through two games including two opportunities inside the 10 and one inside the 5. Washington is also the upcoming matchup. At close to 2-to-1, Warren gives us a combination of scoring-area usage and price that the short favorites simply don't offer.

2. Rashee Rice Anytime TD (+160) vs. Las Vegas

Rashee Rice ranks No. 18 on the current board with a 77.0 KOF Score and a best available price of +160 in the KofSports market screen. That price is the appeal: the market is giving us a 40.0% implied probability while the KOF model still places Rice firmly in the STRONG tier.

Rice gives Kansas City a receiving option who can win underneath and after the catch rather than requiring a low-percentage deep shot to cash the ticket. Current external markets are in the same general plus-money range, making him one of the more appealing ways to get exposure to the Chiefs' touchdown market without laying a heavy price.

3. Nico Collins Anytime TD (+165) vs. Dallas

Nico Collins is No. 16 in the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings with a 77.4 KOF Score, yet the current board shows +165. His implied probability is only 39.2%, giving us another plus-money receiver who still carries a STRONG KOF rating.

This is the type of profile we want for the third straight play: a featured receiving option with legitimate touchdown upside at a number that can return more than 1.5 units on a one-unit stake. We don't need Collins to grade like a -250 favorite for +165 to be interesting; we need his opportunity and matchup to be strong enough to justify the price.

Week 4 Anytime TD Picks at a Glance

Tyler Warren anytime TD (+190) — KOF Score: 80.8
Rashee Rice anytime TD (+160) — KOF Score: 77.0
Nico Collins anytime TD (+165) — KOF Score: 77.4

Bonus Parlay: Jahmyr Gibbs + Derrick Henry Anytime TD

If you still want exposure to the two elite short-priced touchdown profiles, this is where we prefer to use them. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks No. 2 on the KOF board at 92.1 and Derrick Henry ranks No. 3 at 89.7. Instead of laying roughly -300 and -200 separately, pairing Gibbs and Henry as anytime TD scorers creates a more playable bonus parlay while keeping the three official straight plays at plus money. Check the live parlay price at your sportsbook before betting because touchdown odds move throughout the week.

Why We're Prioritizing Value

A high KOF Score does not automatically mean a bet is attractive at any price. Jonathan Taylor, Gibbs and Henry lead the model, but their straight-play prices require very high hit rates just to break even. Warren, Rice and Collins allow us to move down the rankings without abandoning strong model profiles while receiving substantially larger payouts when they score.

Use the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings alongside Red Zone Targets, Defense vs. Position and individual player pages to research the rest of the Week 4 board. Always compare current sportsbook prices before placing a wager.

Final Word

For Week 4, we're choosing price over chalk for the official card: Tyler Warren +190, Rashee Rice +160 and Nico Collins +165. Gibbs and Henry remain two of the strongest raw touchdown candidates in the KOF model, but they fit better together as a bonus parlay than as expensive individual straight plays.