NFL Player Props Today: 3 Best Picks for November 1, 2026

NFL Player Props Today: 3 Picks for Sunday, November 1, 2026

Sunday’s NFL player props card starts with a running back receiving total, adds a receiver coming off a huge performance and finishes with a quarterback bounce-back opportunity. Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers), Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals), and Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) make our three-pick shortlist.

The picks below use the DraftKings lines and KofSports projections at the time of analysis. Recent results were checked against official team game logs through October 25. Odds can move before kickoff.

Today’s NFL Player Props Picks

1. Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers): Over 23.5 receiving yards (-108) vs. Cleveland Browns. KofSports projection: 35.5 yards.

2. Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals): Over 68.5 receiving yards (-114) vs. Tennessee Titans. KofSports projection: 83.2 yards.

3. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs): Over 223.5 passing yards (-113) at Denver Broncos. KofSports projection: 250.4 yards.

1. Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers) Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

Warren gets the top spot because his receiving production has cleared this number in all seven games this season. His latest five receiving totals, newest first, are 36, 28, 87, 33, and 49 yards. Even his season low of 27 would have beaten 23.5.

He also reached 33 receiving yards on three catches in the October 1 meeting at Cleveland. That current-season result gives this pick a useful matchup reference beyond the overall streak. His season total of 294 receiving yards works out to 42.0 per game.

KofSports projects 35.5 receiving yards, a 12-yard cushion over the line. The appeal is the modest threshold: Warren needs 24 yards, rather than a touchdown or a huge workload. He is not listed on Pittsburgh’s final injury report for this matchup.

The main risk is receiving volume. He caught just two passes at Tampa Bay, so a quiet day on short throws could still sink the over. His perfect season record at this threshold supports the pick, but does not guarantee another hit.

Check the numbers: Warren’s official game log

2. Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) Over 68.5 Receiving Yards

Higgins has beaten 68.5 receiving yards in four of six appearances this season and four of his latest five. Those five totals are 148, 22, 157, 90, and 95 yards, newest first. He most recently caught six passes for 148 yards and a touchdown at Baltimore on October 25.

His 571 receiving yards across six games produce a 95.2-yard average. That average benefits from two enormous performances, but the 90- and 95-yard games also cleared today’s line comfortably. There is more to this case than one explosive outing.

KofSports projects 83.2 receiving yards, 14.7 above the 68.5 line. We prefer this over to chasing a much higher alternate total: 69 yards cashes the bet, leaving room below both the model projection and his season average.

The clear counterexample is his 22-yard game at Miami. Receiving opportunities can shift from week to week, and a big season average does not create a safe floor. This is our second choice because the recent production supports the projection, while that low-output game keeps expectations grounded.

Check the numbers: Higgins’ official game log

3. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) Over 223.5 Passing Yards

Mahomes has cleared 223.5 passing yards in four of six games this season. His latest five totals are 165, 272, 225, 246, and 382 yards, newest first. Across six starts, his 1,474 passing yards translate to 245.7 per game.

KofSports projects 250.4 passing yards, 26.9 above the line. That puts the target below both the projection and his season average, making this a reasonable rebound play after his 165-yard outing at Seattle.

There are two reasons to rank this third. First, his 225-yard performance at Las Vegas barely cleared this threshold. Second, he threw for only 184 yards in Kansas City’s September 14 win over Denver. The earlier matchup is a direct reminder that winning the game and clearing a passing prop are different outcomes.

Mahomes finished the week as a full practice participant without a game-status designation. We lean over at 223.5, but would reassess if the line rises substantially. This pick rests on the overall production and projection, rather than an assumption that a bounce-back is inevitable.

Check the numbers: Mahomes’ official game log

Get Free Access to NFL Player Prop Trends

Build your own Sunday shortlist with free access to the KofSports NFL Player Props tool. Compare prop lines, recent game results, hit rates and matchup history to research your next play. Explore the free tool before kickoff.

Warren is our preferred play, followed by Higgins and Mahomes. Treat these as individual selections and compare available prices before placing a wager. Projection differences measure yards above the line; they are not win probabilities or guaranteed betting returns.