NFL Player Props Today: 4 Best Bets for Week 1

NFL Player Props Today: 4 Best Bets for Week 1

The first full Sunday of the NFL season is here and sportsbooks have posted hundreds of player props across the Week 1 slate.

But a strong historical hit rate doesn't automatically make a prop a good bet.

That's where we start our research at KofSports. Our NFL Player Prop Trends tool compares current DraftKings lines against each player's recent results, making it easy to identify props that have consistently gone over or under today's number. From there, we dig deeper into current roles, offseason changes and matchups before deciding whether the trend is actually worth betting.

There are currently more than 200 player props available in the KofSports database.

After going through the Week 1 board, these are four of our favorite NFL player props today.

1. Derrick Henry OVER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Derrick Henry enters Week 1 with one of the strongest combinations of recent production and role stability on the board.

At today's 78.5-yard line, Henry has gone over in 5 straight games and 7 of his last 10. His five most recent rushing totals are 126, 216, 128, 100 and 94 yards.

More importantly, there isn't much reason to expect Baltimore to move away from Henry as the centerpiece of its rushing attack.

The Ravens enter Week 1 with Justice Hill as the primary change-of-pace option and Rasheen Ali expected to contribute heavily on special teams. Henry averaged 19.6 touches per game over the previous two regular seasons, leaving Baltimore's backfield structure pointing toward another workhorse role.

Indianapolis wasn't a pushover against the run last season, the Colts ranked 7th at 101.9 rushing yards allowed per game—but Henry's individual workload makes 78.5 much more attainable than simply betting on Baltimore to dominate the matchup. One current projection has Henry around 82 rushing yards for Week 1.

Henry also rushed for 1,595 yards on 307 carries last season, an average of 93.8 yards per game.

We don't need another 120-yard explosion.

Give us Derrick Henry OVER 78.5 rushing yards (-112).

KofSports Trend: Last 5: 5/5 | Last 10: 7/10

2. De'Von Achane OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

De'Von Achane's rushing line sits at 70.5 against Las Vegas, and his recent results immediately put this prop on our radar.

Achane has cleared 70.5 in 4 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10.

His recent rushing totals:

83, 81, 60, 92, 134, 120, 174, 67, 67 and 82.

That's six performances of at least 80 yards during that 10-game stretch and three games of 120+.

There is some variance here—something that comes with Achane's explosive style—but the ceiling is substantially higher than this number. He doesn't necessarily need 20+ carries to get there.

Miami's offense will look different in 2026, which is exactly why we don't want to blindly treat last season's hit rates as a projection. But Achane remains one of the central pieces of the Dolphins offense entering Week 1.

At essentially standard -110 juice, we're willing to back the combination of explosiveness and recent consistency.

Give us De'Von Achane OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-110).

KofSports Trend: Last 5: 4/5 | Last 10: 7/10

Find NFL Player Prop Trends Before You Bet

Historical results aren't predictions. They're a research tool.

The KofSports NFL Player Prop Trends page compares today's DraftKings lines against recent player performance so you can quickly identify potential betting trends before digging into the matchup.

You can currently research more than 200 NFL props across passing, rushing and receiving markets, with filters for players, games, markets and recent hit rates.

→ Research Today's NFL Player Prop Trends

The key is what you do after finding the trend.

A player going over today's number in nine of his last 10 games can be meaningful. But if he changed teams, lost his starting job or now has significantly different competition for touches, those nine games may not accurately represent his current opportunity.

That's why our next play is particularly interesting.

3. Jauan Jennings OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

This is the strongest raw trend of the five.

Jauan Jennings has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in:

• 5 of his last 5
• 10 of his last 10
• 15 of 17 games last season

That's an 88.2% season hit rate against today's number.

His last 10 receiving totals were:

23, 45, 35, 42, 71, 37, 39, 41, 54 and 71.

Every single one cleared 22.5.

But there's a major reason we shouldn't simply look at that 10/10 and hammer the over: Jennings changed teams.

Minnesota lists Jennings as one of its starting wide receivers alongside Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on its Week 1 depth chart.

That makes his historical results useful—but not directly predictive.

What we like is the combination.

Jennings has demonstrated an extremely consistent ability to clear a very low receiving threshold, and his new team is immediately listing him as a starting receiver rather than a depth piece.

At just 22.5 yards, we're effectively asking for a couple of catches.

There is uncertainty whenever a receiver enters a new offense, but the sportsbook has compensated for that uncertainty by setting an extremely low threshold.

We'll take our chances.

Give us Jauan Jennings OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-109).

KofSports Trend: Last 5: 5/5 | Last 10: 10/10 | Season: 15/17

4. Aaron Jones OVER 29.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Aaron Jones is our most cautious play of the four.

The historical trend is strong. Jones has gone over 29.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10.

His recent rushing totals include 53, 85, 34, 76, 41, 70, 47 and 78 yards—all enough to clear today's number.

The concern is his 2026 role.

Minnesota's Week 1 depth chart lists Aaron Jones OR Jordan Mason at running back rather than giving Jones an uncontested RB1 designation.

Mason is expected to have an early-down role, while Jones could be used more heavily in the passing game. Green Bay also limited explosive rushing effectively last season.

Those factors are enough to keep Jones below Henry and Achane on our list.

But 29.5 is a very different proposition from asking Jones to rush for 60 or 70 yards.

Even in a split backfield, eight carries at four yards per attempt gets us there.

Jones also gets his former team in Minnesota, although we're not treating the revenge-game narrative as a meaningful statistical edge.

This one comes down to the number.

Give us Aaron Jones OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-111).

KofSports Trend: Last 5: 4/5 | Last 10: 8/10

Our Best NFL Player Props Today

Player

Prop

Odds

Recent Trend

Derrick Henry

OVER 78.5 Rush Yds

-112

5/5 L5

De'Von Achane

OVER 70.5 Rush Yds

-110

4/5 L5

Jauan Jennings

OVER 22.5 Rec Yds

-109

10/10 L10

Aaron Jones

OVER 29.5 Rush Yds

-111

8/10 L10

If we're ranking these strictly by confidence, Henry is our favorite, followed closely by Achane.

Jennings has easily the strongest historical hit rate, but his move to Minnesota adds uncertainty that isn't present with Henry. Jones' potential timeshare makes him the most fragile of the four.

A 90% Hit Rate Doesn't Automatically Mean Bet the Over

One of the biggest mistakes bettors make with player prop trends is treating historical hit rates as probabilities.

They aren't.

Suppose a player has gone over today's line in 9 of his last 10 games. That's valuable information—but before betting him, we still need to ask:

• Is his current role the same?
• Did he change teams?
• Did his team add competition at his position?
• Is someone returning from injury?
• Has his expected snap share changed?
• Is today's matchup significantly different?
• Has the sportsbook already adjusted the line?

This Week 1 slate gives us several perfect examples.

Jennings' 10/10 streak looks incredible, but he's now playing in a different offense. Jones has gone over in 8 of 10, but Minnesota could use Jordan Mason heavily. Kolar's historical sample is smaller, but his new role may actually make his old numbers more interesting, not less.

That's why the KofSports Player Prop Trends tool is designed as a starting point for research—not an automatic bet generator.

NFL Player Prop Trends to Avoid Blindly Following

Dawson Knox might be the best example on Sunday's board.

His receiving line is only 14.5 yards, and the KofSports tool shows him clearing that number in 16 of 17 games last season and 9 of his last 10.

On the surface, that looks stronger than almost anything we've bet in this article.

We're still leaving it off our card.

Why?

Because Week 1 isn't being played under last year's exact circumstances.

When personnel, roles and usage change, historical hit rates need to be discounted. A green 94% box looks great on a screen, but our job is to determine whether the assumptions behind that number still apply.

Sometimes the best thing a betting tool can help you do is find a bet.

Other times, it's helping you identify the next question you need to ask before placing it.

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