NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Scorer Picks: 4 Best Value Targets

NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Scorer Picks: Four Value Targets

For the October 11–12 NFL slate, we are looking beyond the shortest touchdown prices. Our four anytime TD scorer picks are Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Davante Adams: established receiving options at even money or better in the KofSports Anytime TD rankings.

This card covers Sunday’s games plus Monday Night Football. The prices are the best available sportsbook odds at the time of writing, not live quotes or Polymarket prices. These are our preferred value candidates from that shortlist, not a claim that every player on the full NFL board has been independently priced.

Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Picks at a Glance

Sam LaPorta vs. Arizona: +180 | KofSports rating 82.2 | Break-even probability 35.7%.

Trey McBride vs. Detroit: +115 | KofSports rating 81.1 | Break-even probability 46.5%.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. San Francisco: +100 | KofSports rating 76.5 | Break-even probability 50.0%.

Davante Adams vs. Buffalo, Monday Night Football: +105 | KofSports rating 81.2 | Break-even probability 48.8%.

Break-even percentages are calculated from the quoted odds before any fees. KofSports rating scores are rankings, not touchdown probabilities. The percentage column beside “8 books” in the screenshots is not treated here as a validated model forecast.

1. Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+180): Best Payout on the Card

LaPorta is our favorite payout-versus-ranking combination. He sits sixth overall in the rankings with an 82.2 “Strong” rating, yet +180 offers the largest return of our four selections: $180 profit on a winning $100 stake.

He has 22 catches for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns through 4 games. That is 5.5 receptions per game, giving us a receiving role behind the touchdown angle rather than a pick built only around a name or a long price.

The scoring path is a short touchdown catch off a route into space or a play-action look near the goal line. That is our football rationale, not a claim that a particular play or red-zone target count has been verified. Detroit’s other receiving and rushing options still compete for those opportunities.

At +180, the price requires a scoring probability above 35.7% to generate positive expected value. We do not have a calibrated probability estimate, so this is a value lean based on price, ranking and involvement—not a proven numerical edge. We want +180 or better.

2. Trey McBride Anytime TD (+115): Volume and a Defensive Opening

McBride brings the biggest reception total among these four: 33 catches for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns through 4 games. He is 8th overall in the rankings with an 81.1 rating and +115 keeps the payout above even money.

Detroit’s official injury report lists Brian Branch and Rock Ya-Sin out. Missing defensive backs is a relevant matchup factor for Arizona’s passing game, though it does not tell us exactly who will cover McBride or guarantee easier goal-line targets.

We like the combination of regular receiving involvement and a plus-money price. The risk is that catches between the 20s do not become touchdowns; Arizona can finish drives on the ground or through another receiver. McBride needs to score in this game, not simply produce a busy stat line.

The break-even threshold at +115 is 46.5%. Our preference is +115 or better, with final inactives and any change in Arizona’s passing personnel checked before kickoff.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+100): Production Without Heavy Juice

Smith-Njigba’s has 32 catches, 481 yards, and 6 touchdowns through 4 games. He scored in 3 of those games, including two multi-touchdown performances, before finishing without a touchdown against the Chargers.

That distinction matters: 6 touchdowns in 4 games does not mean 6 winning anytime-TD tickets. The three scoring games support his involvement, but a four-game hit rate is not a reliable estimate of Sunday’s probability.

At +100, we get an even-money return for a receiver who has already demonstrated both sustained receiving production and a path to explosive touchdowns. His 76.5 ranking score trails the other selections, so the case rests more heavily on his actual receiving role and the price.

Seattle lists Smith-Njigba without a game-status designation after full practices Thursday and Friday. San Francisco lists Nick Bosa out, which could help Seattle’s protection, but the divisional matchup still carries defensive and game-script uncertainty. Our target is +100 or better.

4. Davante Adams Anytime TD (+105): Monday Night Football Value

Adams is seventh in the KofSports Anytime TD rankings at 81.2. At +105, he offers a plus-money route into the Rams’ scoring opportunities, while teammate Puka Nacua is quoted at -122 and Kyren Williams at -170.

He’s had 22 catches for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns through 4 games. Both touchdowns came in the same game against the Giants so the season total should not be presented as consistent weekly scoring. The receiving production supports the role; touchdown conversion remains volatile.

Our preference for Adams here is price-sensitive. He can win on an individual receiving touchdown without us needing to pay the heavier prices attached to other Rams options. That does not establish that he is more likely to score than either teammate.

The final Rams injury report shows Adams’ earlier absence was for rest, followed by two full practices and no game-status designation. We want +105 or better for Monday’s matchup with Buffalo. The break-even threshold is 48.8%.

Why We Passed on the Shorter Prices

Amon-Ra St. Brown carries an elite 87.4 rating in the rankings, but -135 requires 57.4% to break even. Kyren Williams at -170 requires 63.0%, and Jonathan Taylor at -175 requires 63.6%. Those players can be strong scoring candidates while offering a less attractive payout for this particular card.

We chose receiving options at even money or better, rather than simply copying the highest four rankings. Price is part of the selection, and a move below our quoted targets calls for reassessment. These four are individual picks, not a recommended four-leg parlay; LaPorta and McBride also share the same game.

Compare the Touchdown Markets on Polymarket

Ready to compare the slate? Explore the NFL markets on Polymarket through KofSports and check whether the relevant player-touchdown market is available.

Use the sportsbook odds in this article as a reference, not as a promise of the price you will find on Polymarket. Check the contract’s exact outcome, settlement rules, fees and tradable price. For a standard Yes contract paying $1 if a player scores, a 40¢ entry implies a 40% break-even threshold before fees; it is not the same payout as a +180 sportsbook bet.

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