NHL Player Props Today: 3 Shots on Goal Picks for October 16

Our NHL player props today for Friday, October 16, focus on shots on goal: David Pastrnak Over 3.5 (+100), Evgeni Malkin Over 1.5 (-155) and Fraser Minten Over 1.5 (-135). Each has cleared his current threshold in 4 out of his last 5 games.

Pastrnak leads the card on price and season consistency. Malkin and Minten offer lower requirements of 2 shots with the tradeoff of paying heavier odds. All prices are DraftKings references from October 16; recheck current lines and player availability before betting.

NHL Prop Bets Today: 3 Shots-on-Goal Picks

David Pastrnak, Boston: Over 3.5 shots on goal (+100). Needs 4 shots; 6 out of 7 clears this season.

Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh: Over 1.5 shots on goal (-155). Needs 2 shots; 5 out of 7 clears this season.

Fraser Minten, Boston: Over 1.5 shots on goal (-135). Needs 2 shots; 5 out of 7 clears this season.

Research the board alongside our picks: Open the KofSports NHL Player Props tool to compare current lines with NHL shots on goal stats and recent results.

David Pastrnak Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Pastrnak has registered at least 4 shots in 6 out of 7 games this season, an 85.7% historical clear rate at this line. He has cleared in 4 out of his last 5, with recent totals of 4, 4, 4, 2 and 5 shots.

The +100 payout is the attraction. A winning $100 wager earns $100 profit, and the break-even threshold is 50%. That price, paired with his consistent recent shot production, makes this our preferred candidate of the 3.

We need shot volume rather than a goal or an assist. Pastrnak can have a quiet scoring night and still cash if he puts 4 pucks on net. The recent 2-shot game shows the opposite risk: even a strong shooter can finish below the number.

There is also limited cushion. His 3 most recent results were exactly 4, so Over 4.5 would be a meaningfully different wager. Our recommendation is tied to Over 3.5 at +100 or better, not any Pastrnak Over available.

Evgeni Malkin Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-155)

Malkin needs 2 shots on goal. He has reached that mark in 5 out of 7 games this season and 4 out of his last 5, with recent totals of 3, 2, 3, 1 and 4.

That is a useful combination of a modest threshold and several results above it. In 3 of those 5 games, he finished with at least 3 shots, providing more room than a string of exact 2-shot clears.

The catch is the price: -155 requires a success rate above 60.8% to break even. His season clear rate of 71.4% supports considering the play, but 7 games do not establish his true probability. A change in ice time, power-play involvement or willingness to shoot can affect the outcome.

We prefer Over 1.5 at -155 or better. A move to 2.5 would demand 3 shots and remove the low-threshold appeal.

Fraser Minten Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-135)

Minten has also cleared 1.5 shots in 5 out of 7 games this season and 4 out of his last 5. His recent shot totals are 4, 3, 4, 1 and 3.

All 4 recent clears reached at least 3 shots. We only need 2, giving this angle a useful gap between the required result and his recent successful games. His recent 1-shot finish is the reminder that the volume is not automatic.

At -135, the break-even threshold is 57.4%, below Malkin’s 60.8% despite the same season clear count. That makes Minten worth considering on price, without implying that their roles or actual scoring chances are identical.

Check his place in Boston’s lineup and expected ice time before betting. Our target is Over 1.5 at -135 or better; a reduced role would weaken the case.

How to Read NHL Shots on Goal Stats

A shot on goal is generally a shot that scores or would enter the net without a goaltender’s save. Missed shots and blocked attempts are not shots on goal. Total shot attempts can help describe offensive activity, but they are not the number used to settle an SOG prop.

Start with the line, then evaluate recent volume, season sample, ice time and role. The rates here compare past shot totals with the current recommended threshold; they do not show the closing lines of earlier bets. The 5-game and season windows overlap, and no head-to-head data is supplied for these picks.

Keep these as individual selections. Pastrnak and Minten share Boston’s game environment, so multiplying their hit rates would not provide a reliable parlay probability. Check the sportsbook’s overtime and settlement rules as well.

Find More NHL Player Props Today With KofSports

Want to find your own NHL prop bets today? Explore the KofSports NHL Player Props tool and compare today’s lines with recent shot totals and hit rates. Use the trends to build a shortlist, then weigh the price and expected role before choosing a bet.

Our October 16 card: Pastrnak Over 3.5 (+100), Malkin Over 1.5 (-155) and Minten Over 1.5 (-135). Pastrnak is our lead price angle, with the 2 lower-threshold Overs rounding out the card.

Source: KofSports NHL Player Props screenshots supplied October 16, embedded above. Prices are reference quotes, not a live feed. Historical rates are context, not guaranteed win probabilities.