Ohio State vs USC Pick & Prediction: Buckeyes to Cover

Ohio State visits USC on Saturday, October 31, and our pick is the Buckeyes -6.5, with a predicted 27–17 win. Replacing Julian Sayin is a significant challenge, but Ohio State does not need its quarterback to carry the entire game if its defense and supporting offense perform.

Ohio State vs USC: Game Details and Odds

Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026. Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Records: Ohio State 6–1; USC 6–2.

Morning reference odds: Ohio State -6.5 (-122), USC +6.5 (+100); total 51.5; moneyline Ohio State -250, USC +202. These published FanDuel prices can change. Our spread pick is specifically Ohio State -6.5, where a seven-point win covers.

The Case for Ohio State

The Buckeyes’ recent results show more than one way to win. They beat Maryland 45–16 on October 10 and survived Indiana 19–15 on October 17. The Indiana result is particularly relevant to this preview: Ohio State can win a difficult game without needing a shootout.

USC, meanwhile, comes home after a 24–7 defeat at Wisconsin. That result is not proof that the Trojans will struggle again, but it supplies a recent example of their offense being contained. Our case is that Ohio State can make USC sustain drives rather than rely on quick scoring bursts.

Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) gives the replacement quarterback a major receiving option. We would expect Ryan Day to build manageable reads and use the surrounding offense to ease the transition. That is our anticipated approach, not a confirmed play-calling plan or a promise that quarterback inexperience will disappear.

Julian Sayin’s Absence Changes the Matchup

Sayin is unavailable, and Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair have been the alternatives under discussion. Reports have pointed toward Fahey, but the preview should not assume a fully settled quarterback rotation before the team confirms it. A first start on the road introduces uncertainty in protection calls, timing and turnover avoidance.

That is why we prefer a forecast in the high 20s for Ohio State rather than projecting a routine offensive explosion. The Buckeyes need to avoid handing USC short fields and allow the defense to keep the game within a manageable scoring range.

Jayden Maiava (USC) and the Trojans have the home-field opportunity to punish those mistakes. An early lead would put more pressure on Ohio State’s new quarterback and make the spread harder to cover. USC’s path is to create that uncomfortable game state, rather than allow the visitors to dictate a controlled contest.

Why the Number Matters

At -6.5, Ohio State can cover with a touchdown win. Moving to -7 removes that advantage, and -7.5 requires more than a touchdown. Given the quarterback transition, we would not treat those prices as interchangeable.

Our 27–17 prediction favors the Buckeyes by 10, but it is an editorial forecast rather than a model-derived probability. The largest risk is offensive inefficiency: Ohio State could win a close game and still fail to cover. We are backing its broader team support while acknowledging that the new quarterback makes the margin less certain.

Ohio State vs USC Pick and Score Prediction

Ohio State’s defense is the foundation of this selection. We expect the Buckeyes to limit USC enough for their replacement quarterback to operate within a manageable game, then create separation through sustained drives and a few important plays from the supporting cast.

Best bet: Ohio State -6.5 at the published -122 reference. Predicted score: Ohio State 27, USC 17. This free preview is separate from the official KofSports Premium card.

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Team records and recent results: Ohio State’s official USC preview.

Quarterback context: Big Ten’s Week 9 preview.