Patriots vs Bears Anytime Touchdown Picks: 3 TNF Scorers

Patriots vs Bears anytime touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football start with D’Andre Swift at -160, followed by Colston Loveland at +185, and A.J. Brown at +150. Swift is the highest-rated player in this matchup in the KofSports Anytime TD model, while Loveland and Brown offer plus-money alternatives.

New England visits Chicago at Soldier Field on Thursday, October 22, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET. The prices below are the best available odds across 6 books in the KofSports rankings snapshot checked October 21. They are sportsbook quotes, not Novig contract prices.

Thursday Night Football Anytime TD Picks

D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown (-160) — top model selection.
Colston Loveland anytime touchdown (+185) — preferred plus-money Bears pick.
A.J. Brown anytime touchdown (+150) — preferred Patriots receiving option.

How to Read the KofSports TD Model

The Kof Score combines market, red-zone, usage, recent-form, matchup and game-environment signals into a ranking score. A 71.5 score is not a 71.5% chance of scoring. The market percentages below summarize the prices across books; they are not an independent model probability or a guarantee of value.

1. D’Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown (-160)

KofSports model snapshot: Kof Score 71.5 — Above Average | Red-zone score 87.4 | Usage score 70.1 | Market benchmark 62.7% | Best odds -160 across 6 books.

Swift is the clearest starting point on this board. His 71.5 Kof Score leads the Patriots–Bears options with a strong red-zone component supporting the selection. He offers paths to a touchdown as both a runner and receiver which gives the wager more flexibility than relying on one particular type of scoring play.

Chicago has ruled out Kyle Monangai with thumb and toe injuries. That removes one back from the rotation although Roschon Johnson remains another potential scoring option. Monangai’s absence supports Swift’s opportunity case without making every goal-line carry his by default.

There is a meaningful caution inside the model: Swift’s matchup component is only 6.9. His overall ranking is being carried by other factors especially the red-zone and market signals. We are backing the strongest overall profile in this game, rather than describing New England as an easy rushing matchup.

At -160, the break-even rate is 61.5%. This is the shortest price on our card, so shop carefully and avoid paying a substantially higher price simply because Swift ranks first.

2. Colston Loveland Anytime Touchdown (+185)

KofSports model snapshot: Kof Score 63.1 — Average | Red-zone score 83.2 | Usage score 66.6 | Market benchmark 36.0% | Best odds +185 across 6 books.

Loveland is our preferred plus-money Bears selection. His 63.1 Kof Score is the second-highest in this matchup, and his 83.2 red-zone component is the strongest part of his individual case.

That combination matters for an anytime touchdown bet: a player can be a useful scoring target without needing to lead the team in receiving yards. We are looking for a finish near the end zone, and the model’s red-zone signal is more compelling here than chasing a longer-priced name with a weaker overall profile.

New England’s own preview identifies Chicago’s frequent use of multiple tight ends. That offers a tactical reason to watch Loveland’s involvement although formation usage alone does not establish his target share. His matchup score of 30.3 also keeps us from treating this as a dominant matchup advantage.

At +185, the break-even rate is 35.1%. The 36.0% market benchmark is only modestly above that and includes sportsbook pricing effects, so it is not proof of a positive expected return. Loveland earns the pick through his relative ranking and red-zone profile at this price.

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3. A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+150)

KofSports model snapshot: Kof Score 57.0 — Average | Matchup score 86.1 | Usage score 75.4 | Market benchmark 42.0% | Best odds +150 across 6 books.

Brown is our Patriots selection with a profile built around usage and matchup rather than recent scoring form. His 86.1 matchup score and 75.4 usage score stand out, while his 48.6 red-zone score and 32.6 recent-form score explain why he sits behind Swift and Loveland overall.

Availability is a positive update: Brown practiced fully Wednesday and has no game designation for Thursday. New England is also without receivers Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins, who are on injured reserve. That leaves a thinner receiving group and makes Brown’s involvement particularly relevant.

The offensive line remains a concern. The Patriots are missing guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown, which could affect protection and the offense’s ability to sustain scoring drives. Brown’s matchup signal is encouraging, but the offense still needs to create the opportunity.

At +150, the break-even rate is 40.0%. Brown’s 42.0% market benchmark provides a useful comparison, not an independent forecast. We prefer his receiving touchdown case to forcing a shorter-priced Patriots runner with a lower overall Kof Score.

Research the Full Anytime TD Rankings

Swift is our top selection, Loveland is the plus-money Bears alternative, and Brown is the Patriots option. Treat them as individual picks; Swift and Loveland can compete for the same Chicago scoring opportunities, and a same-game parlay requires every leg to land.

Explore the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings →

Compare the current odds and model breakdown before kickoff, then confirm the final inactive list. For more yardage and reception angles, read our Patriots vs Bears player props article.

Patriots vs Bears player props: 3 TNF picks →

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