Patriots vs Seahawks Player Props: 3 Best Bets

Patriots vs. Seahawks Player Props: 3 Best NFL Prop Bets for Opening Night

The NFL season starts exactly where the last one ended.

Seven months after Seattle defeated New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, the Patriots return to face the Seahawks on Wednesday, September 9 at Lumen Field for NFL Opening Night.

And for bettors, that gives us something unusually valuable for Week 1:

A recent head-to-head matchup between these exact teams.

We aren't blindly projecting how Seattle's defense might attack Drake Maye. We just watched it happen on the biggest stage in football.

We aren't guessing how Christian Gonzalez might affect Seattle's passing game. We watched him help hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba to four catches for 27 yards in the Super Bowl—and Gonzalez personally allowed only one catch for 16 yards to JSN on the routes he covered him.

So we ran the current Opening Night lines through our new KofSports NFL Player Prop Trends tool and found three props worth digging into.

Patriots vs. Seahawks Player Props

Our three early leans for NFL Opening Night:

Drake Maye OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Cooper Kupp OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards (-113) — assuming Christian Gonzalez plays

Let's break down each one.

1. Drake Maye OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

This might be my favorite of the three.

Our NFL Player Prop Trends tool shows Maye has gone over the current 24.5 rushing-yard line in four of his last five games.

Drake Maye Rushing Trends

Split

Over 24.5

Last 5

4/5 — 80%

Last 10

6/10 — 60%

Season

11/21 — 52.4%

Last game vs. Seattle

OVER

But it's the matchup that makes this more interesting than the raw hit rate.

Seattle made Maye uncomfortable all night in the Super Bowl

The Seahawks absolutely wrecked New England's protection in Super Bowl LX.

Maye was pressured on 52.8% of his dropbacks and sacked six times. Seattle generated pressure with both its front four and Mike Macdonald's pressure packages, repeatedly forcing Maye to operate outside the structure of the offense.

The Patriots' own postgame film review found Seattle generated an 85.7% pressure rate when it blitzed.

And what did Maye do when plays broke down?

He ran.

Maye finished with:

5 carries
37 rushing yards
7.4 yards per carry

despite New England's offense struggling for most of the game.

Now his rushing line for the rematch is only 24.5 yards.

We need 25.

Why the rematch could create another scrambling game

New England has had an entire offseason to figure out how to better handle Seattle's pressure schemes, so I'm not expecting the Patriots to simply run back the exact same offensive performance.

But Seattle's defensive philosophy isn't changing.

Mike Macdonald wants to create hesitation.

He wants quarterbacks holding the football while coverage develops behind disguised fronts.

And Maye has the athletic ability to punish defenses when those plays break down.

There's a difference between betting that Seattle will sack Maye six more times and betting that Seattle will force him out of the pocket enough for him to scramble for 25 yards.

The latter is considerably easier for me to buy.

KofSports Player Prop Pick

Drake Maye OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

He's cleared this number in four of his last five, ran for 37 yards against Seattle in the Super Bowl, and gets another matchup against a defense that made him uncomfortable throughout that game.

Give me Maye OVER 24.5 rushing yards.

2. Cooper Kupp OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Important: This angle assumes Christian Gonzalez plays.

This is the most interesting chess-match prop on the board.

Because if Gonzalez is on the field, New England has already shown us exactly who it wants him following.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Christian Gonzalez shut down JSN in the Super Bowl

Smith-Njigba entered Super Bowl LX after a monster season in which he caught 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns.

New England put its best corner on him.

And Gonzalez delivered.

According to the Patriots' film review, Gonzalez covered Smith-Njigba on 15 routes and allowed:

3 targets
1 reception
16 yards

He also broke up three passes, including a potential touchdown intended for JSN.

Smith-Njigba's final line:

10 targets
4 receptions
27 yards

So where did Seattle turn?

Cooper Kupp.

Kupp saw 12 targets and finished with 61 yards

Kupp led Seattle with 12 targets in the Super Bowl.

He caught six of them for 61 receiving yards.

Now his Opening Night receiving prop sits at only 32.5 yards.

Our NFL Player Prop Trends tool shows:

Split

Over 32.5

Last 5

3/5 — 60%

Last 10

6/10 — 60%

Season

10/19 — 52.6%

Last game vs. New England

1/1 — 100%

His last 10 receiving totals:

61, 36, 60, 29, 6, 39, 46, 35, 24, 24

He's gone over 32.5 in six of those 10.

More importantly, he almost doubled this number against New England in February.

The Gonzalez situation changes everything

There's one major caveat.

As of this weekend, Gonzalez has not committed to playing Opening Night while he and New England remain apart in contract negotiations.

That matters enormously to this handicap.

If Gonzalez plays and New England again uses him heavily against Smith-Njigba, I expect Sam Darnold to have to distribute targets elsewhere.

Kupp becomes one of the obvious beneficiaries.

If Gonzalez doesn't play, JSN's matchup changes dramatically, and I'd want to reassess Kupp's target projection before betting this.

So this isn't a prop I'd blindly lock in five days early.

It's one we're watching.

KofSports Player Prop Pick — Conditional

Cooper Kupp OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Play it if Christian Gonzalez is active.

Gonzalez helped erase Smith-Njigba in February, and Kupp responded with 12 targets and 61 yards.

At 32.5, we don't need anything close to another 61-yard performance.

3. Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

This one is more trend-driven.

At the current 41.5-yard line, our NFL Player Prop Trends tool shows:

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Trends

Split

Over 41.5

Last 5

4/5 — 80%

Last 10

7/10 — 70%

Season

9/18 — 50%

Last game vs. Seattle

0/1

Stevenson's recent rushing totals:

23, 71, 70, 53, 131, 47, 51, 50, 40, 5

That's seven overs in his last 10 games, including four of his last five.

And the current number asks for only 42 yards.

The Super Bowl result needs context

Stevenson finished with only 23 rushing yards on seven attempts against Seattle.

Obviously, that's the concern.

But New England's offense was completely derailed.

The Patriots punted on their first eight possessions and entered the fourth quarter trailing 12-0 before the game finally opened up. Seattle's defensive front controlled the matchup, and New England never established a normal offensive rhythm.

That left Stevenson with just seven carries.

His performance wasn't:

20 carries → 23 yards.

It was:

7 carries → 23 yards.

That's an important distinction.

At roughly the same efficiency, Stevenson would need only around 13 carries to reach this number.

And despite his limited rushing workload in the Super Bowl, New England still found ways to get Stevenson involved: he caught all five of his targets for 40 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The price is mostly about workload

We aren't asking Stevenson for 70 or 80 yards.

We're asking for 42.

If New England can keep this game competitive and avoid the offensive disaster that unfolded in February, Stevenson should have a much better opportunity to accumulate carries.

The recent trend supports it.

KofSports Player Prop Pick

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Stevenson has cleared this number in seven of his last 10 games and four of his last five.

The Super Bowl under is legitimate, but seven carries isn't enough volume to scare us away from a rushing line this low.

Give me Stevenson OVER 41.5 rushing yards.

Best Patriots vs. Seahawks Player Prop

If I had to rank the three right now:

1. Drake Maye OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards

Best matchup angle

Seattle pressured Maye relentlessly in February, and he responded with 37 rushing yards. The line requires only 25.

2. Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards

Best trend angle

Over in 7 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5. We're betting that a more competitive offensive performance produces more than the seven carries he received in the Super Bowl.

3. Cooper Kupp OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards

Best situational angle — if Gonzalez plays

Kupp had 61 yards on 12 targets in the Super Bowl while Gonzalez helped hold JSN to 27 yards.

Research NFL Player Props With the KofSports Prop Trends Tool

These picks are exactly why we built the KofSports NFL Player Prop Trends Tool.

Instead of jumping between box scores, sportsbook pages and stat sites, you can research a prop in one place.

For each available NFL player prop, quickly see:

Current sportsbook line and odds
Last 5 hit rate
Last 10 hit rate
Season hit rate
Head-to-head performance vs. the opponent
Game-by-game results against today's prop line

So if Drake Maye's rushing line moves from 24.5 to 29.5 before kickoff, you don't have to rely on analysis written for an outdated number.

Run the new line through the data yourself.

Try the KofSports NFL Player Prop Trends Tool →

Use it to research Patriots vs. Seahawks player props, compare the current lines against recent player performance and find the trends that stand out before NFL Opening Night.

Player prop lines and odds move throughout the week. The analysis above is based on the specific lines listed at publication. Always check the current number before placing a wager. KofSports promotes responsible sports betting and does not guarantee results.