Seahawks vs Broncos Anytime TD Picks: 3 TNF Scorer Targets

Thursday Night Football brings Seattle to Denver on October 15, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High. Our Seahawks vs Broncos anytime TD scorer picks start with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, followed by two smaller long-shot angles: AJ Barner and Courtland Sutton.

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Seahawks vs Broncos Anytime TD Picks

Top pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD (+115), conditional on his ankle status and normal involvement. KofSports rating: 74.6, ranked No. 8.

Seattle long shot: AJ Barner anytime TD (+400). KofSports rating: 61.7, ranked 45th.

Denver long shot: Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+280). KofSports rating: 61.2, ranked 47th.

Sportsbook odds quoted as of October 13. KofSports rating scores rank the candidates; they are not scoring probabilities. Check current prices and final player availability before betting.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+115)

JSN leads our card with a 74.6 “Above Avg.” rating, well ahead of the other Seahawks–Broncos candidates. At +115, we get a plus-money return on Seattle’s productive receiving threat.

JSN has 37 receptions, 583 receiving yards and, 7 touchdowns through 5 games this season. He has scored in 4 out of 5 games, including 1 touchdown and 102 receiving yards against San Francisco on Sunday.

We like the combination of established receiving involvement and multiple ways to score: a short touchdown reception or a catch that turns into an explosive play. Those are potential paths, not a forecast of a specific play call.

The condition is his ankle. Seattle’s Monday estimated report listed JSN as limited after he finished Sunday’s game. Denver also listed Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga as non-participants, but their Thursday availability was not settled by that report. Recheck all 3 statuses rather than assuming the matchup will be shorthanded.

At +115, the break-even threshold is 46.5%. We prefer that price or better if the subsequent injury reports support normal involvement. Scoring in 4 out of 5 games is encouraging, though that history does not establish an 80% chance to score Thursday.

AJ Barner Anytime TD (+400): Smaller Long Shot

Barner offers the biggest payout of our 3 selections: +400 returns $400 profit on a winning $100 wager and requires a scoring probability above 20% to break even. His ranking score slightly exceeds Sutton’s despite the longer price, making him an interesting secondary angle.

Barner has 12 catches for 122 yards and 0 receiving touchdowns through 5 games, plus a 1-yard rushing touchdown against Arizona. That rushing score gives him a scoring path beyond a conventional tight-end reception.

We are looking for a short touchdown reception or another close-range rushing opportunity. Barner has scored in 1 out of 5 games this season, so this remains a smaller long shot.

This is a speculative play at +400 or better, with smaller exposure than JSN. A long price and a plausible scoring route do not by themselves prove positive expected value.

Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+280): Denver’s Price Angle

Sutton is our preferred Denver receiving long shot. He carries a 61.2 rating and +280 price, compared with Jaylen Waddle’s 55.4 rating at the same +280. The ranking gives us a reason to prefer Sutton when the payouts match.

Sutton has 11 receptions, 104 yards, and 1 touchdown through 5 games this season. We need 1 of his opportunities to become a touchdown; his modest receiving volume keeps this in the long-shot category.

Our separate receptions article favors Sutton Under 3.5. Both picks can win if he scores while finishing with 3 catches or fewer. That possibility does not mean combining the bets offers value.

At +280, the break-even threshold is 26.3%. We want that price or better and classify Sutton as a smaller long shot, rather than a second top-confidence pick.

Why We Kept the Card to 3

Emanuel Wilson (+100), J.K. Dobbins (+155), Waddle (+280), Bo Nix (+430) and RJ Harvey (+285) were also considered. JSN leads the rankings, while Barner and Sutton offer our preferred long-shot angles.

Play these as individual selections. A 3-leg same-game parlay requires all 3 to score and introduces shared game-script risk.

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