Steelers vs Saints Player Props: 3 Picks for October 25

Jaylen Warren’s receiving work leads our Steelers vs Saints player props for Sunday’s Paris game. We are pairing that over with a Juwan Johnson reception pick and a Bryce Lance yardage under. The common thread is the difference between the posted threshold and what each player has actually produced this season.

Steelers vs Saints is scheduled for Sunday, October 25, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. ET. Below are our 3 player prop picks, using KofSports trend data and the DraftKings lines listed in the tool.

The 3 Picks

• Jaylen Warren over 26.5 receiving yards (-109)
• Juwan Johnson over 3.5 receptions (-118)
• Bryce Lance under 13.5 receiving yards (-111)

Matchup and Availability Notes

Pittsburgh listed Rico Dowdle as questionable with a knee injury on its final report. That is worth monitoring for the backfield split but Warren’s receiving case already stands on his own results. Confirm the active roster before the early kickoff.

Read the official team availability update.

1. Jaylen Warren over 26.5 receiving yards (-109)

Season trend: over in 6 of 6 games (100%). Last 5 appearances: 5 over results. Last-5 average: 46.2 receiving yards.

Recent results, newest first: 28, 87, 33, 49, 34 receiving yards.

Warren has cleared this number in every game this season and the route to 27 yards does not require Pittsburgh to dominate on the ground. His 46.2-yard average over the last 5 games gives the over a useful statistical cushion.

The last 2 results include 28 yards so the streak is not a guarantee of comfortable margins. We prefer the yardage market to his 3.5-reception line: he can reach this target with fewer than 4 catches.

2. Juwan Johnson over 3.5 receptions (-118)

Season trend: over in 4 of 6 games (66.7%). Last 5 appearances: 4 over results. Last-5 average: 4.4 receptions.

Recent results, newest first: 0, 4, 6, 8, 4 receptions.

Johnson needs 4 catches. He reached that mark in 4 consecutive games before his most recent zero-catch outing. The 4.4-catch recent average supports considering a return to the threshold without requiring an exceptional receiving day.

That zero is the clearest warning. This pick depends on a normal receiving role and a recovery in involvement; do not treat the prior run as proof that his opportunities are automatic.

3. Bryce Lance under 13.5 receiving yards (-111)

Season trend: under in 5 of 6 games (83.3%). Last 5 appearances: 5 under results. Last-5 average: 4.8 receiving yards.

Recent results, newest first: 9, 0, 7, 0, 8 receiving yards.

Lance has stayed below 13.5 yards in all of his last 5 games with a high of 9 in that stretch. A low number can still be too high when the recent production has consistently fallen short.

One catch could beat this under. The case is modest recent output rather than a claim that New Orleans cannot complete a downfield pass, so a meaningful increase in his role would weaken the selection.

Research These Props Before Kickoff

Lines and prices above come from the tool’s October 22 odds snapshot, reviewed on October 24. Check the current number and final inactives before betting. Historical hit rates describe past results; they are not model win probabilities. A materially different line or price needs a fresh assessment.

Open the KofSports NFL Player Prop Trends tool to compare the latest lines, game logs and available projections.

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These are individual prop selections. Combining picks from the same offense can concentrate risk, especially when several depend on passing volume. Our preferred starting point is the first selection on the card, then evaluating the others at the prices actually available.