Texas vs Missouri Pick & Prediction: College Football, November 7

Our Texas vs Missouri prediction for Saturday, November 7, 2026 backs Texas -2.5, with a projected final score of Texas 24, Missouri 20. The Longhorns’ defense gives them the edge in a matchup where both teams should have to work for sustained drives.

Texas and Missouri enter 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play. The game is scheduled for noon ET on ESPN at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri.

Texas vs Missouri pick and odds

Best bet: Texas -2.5 (-118 DraftKings reference). Score prediction: Texas 24, Missouri 20. Total reference: 42.5. Odds can change; the recommendation depends on staying below a field goal.

Texas’ defense is the foundation

The Longhorns allow 273.1 total yards and 17.1 points per game, with opponents averaging 4.03 yards per play. Their run defense yields 102.4 yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. Those numbers make this a difficult matchup for a Missouri offense that relies heavily on its lead back.

The aim is to limit efficient early-down runs without needing to sacrifice coverage. If Texas can put Missouri behind schedule, the Tigers will have to manufacture more of their offense through obvious passing situations. That is the central reason to prefer the short road favorite.

Missouri has the personnel to make it close

Jamal Roberts (Missouri Tigers) has rushed for 1,005 yards and 9 touchdowns on 190 carries. He produced 138 rushing yards in the 34-10 win at Arkansas. Texas cannot assume its season averages will automatically hold against that level of workload and production.

Missouri’s own run defense allows 98.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Austin Simmons (Missouri Tigers) has 16 passing touchdowns against 2 interceptions, while the team owns a +8 turnover margin. The Tigers have a credible route to an upset if they win the turnover battle and keep the game on their terms.

Arch Manning (Texas Longhorns) has 15 passing touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Protecting the ball matters more than forcing a highlight throw against a defense capable of making Texas earn each possession.

Injuries and the betting number

Texas is without running back Hollywood Smothers, offensive lineman Trevor Goosby, tight end Nick Townsend and edge rusher Richard Wesley on the latest published availability update. Cam Coleman and Colin Simmons remain questionable. Ryan Wingo was upgraded to probable Friday, an improvement from the earlier report.

Those absences are the main reason this is a measured Texas lean. Recheck the final availability report, especially the status of Coleman and Simmons. Texas’ defensive case is strongest if its front can maintain pressure and contain Roberts without excessive help.

Final prediction: Texas 24, Missouri 20

We expect Missouri to keep this competitive at home, but Texas’ ability to limit rushing efficiency gives the Longhorns the better path to the late stop that decides it. Pick: Texas -2.5, at -120 or better. Reassess at -3; pass rather than automatically chasing -3.5.

The projected score is a handicap estimate, not a model-derived win probability. The spread is the recommendation; no separate total play is included.

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