Today's premium betting card.

West Coast team in a 1 pm East cost game on a short week is why we are getting this number but still taking it. San Francisco enters 6-0, averaging 29.5 PPG with the NFL’s No. 2 offense in EPA/play, while its defense ranks 4th in scoring at 18.3 PPG allowed and 7th in defensive EPA/play. Atlanta sits just 2-4 allowing 25.5 PPG, and its biggest weakness is exactly where Brock Purdy can attack — the Falcons rank 28th against the pass at 252 yards allowed per game. San Francisco is banged up, particularly with Nick Bosa and Mike Evans out, but we’re getting some compensation in the number after the 49ers opened around -4.5 and are now just -2.5. 49ers are still the better team and should cover today.

Alt line parlay with 2 of the league’s most reliable backs and giving ourselves significant cushion from their standard rushing lines. McCaffrey enters averaging 58.3 rushing yards per game and has cleared 40 yards in 5 of 6 games, including 52, 75, 68, 68, and 64 yards in those 5. His standard line is sitting around 53.5-56.5, so dropping to 40+ gives us roughly 14-17 yards of breathing room. Then we pair him with Kyren at 50+ well below his standard line around 67.5-68.5. Williams is averaging 65.5 rushing yards per game, has reached at least 49 yards in each of his last 5, and gets an excellent matchup against a Raiders defense allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game, 5th-most in the NFL. We don’t need ceiling games from either back — we’re asking CMC for 40 when he’s averaging 58.3 and Kyren for 50 when he’s averaging 65.5. Two separate games, heavily discounted thresholds and plenty of cushion from the standard lines.

Let’s take the Rays to even up the series behind Drew Rasmussen at plus money. Rasmussen has been dominant all postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP across 21 innings, allowing just 3 earned runs with 23 strikeouts and only 3 walks. He’s also pitched into the 7th inning in all 3 playoff starts, including 8 scoreless innings with 10 Ks against the Yankees and 7 innings of 1-run ball against Cleveland in his most recent start. This isn't just a short postseason heater either. Rasmussen went 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA after the All-Star break and Tampa Bay is an incredible 14-1 over his last 15 starts. Milwaukee counters with rookie Logan Henderson who was excellent during the regular season with a 2.47 ERA but we’ve seen some cracks in his command this postseason. Henderson has issued 5 walks in only 9 playoff innings across his first 2 starts after walking just 19 batters in 98⅓ regular-season innings. He has allowed 6 total runs, 3 earned, over those 9 postseason innings, and now he gets the biggest start of his career against a Tampa Bay team that nearly stole Game 1 despite facing Jacob Misiorowski. The Rays lost 3-2 but had the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position in the 9th and showed they can hang with Milwaukee even without their best starter on the mound. Now the pitching matchup flips in our favor. Tampa Bay intentionally gave Rasmussen an extra day of rest for this spot and we're getting the team that went 14-1 in his last 15 starts at +106 with its season essentially on the line before heading home for Games 3-5.

Big ML parlay for us today. No. 6 Indiana goes into the Big House as roughly a 7.5-point favorite over Michigan. No. 8 Texas Tech is the biggest mismatch of the 3, entering Cincinnati undefeated at 6-0 and laying roughly 11.5 points. Then we close it with No. 13 Alabama at home against Texas A&M where the Tide are roughly 2-touchdown favorites. We’re not asking any of these favorites to cover inflated spreads — Indiana just needs to escape Ann Arbor, Texas Tech needs to take care of business against an inferior Cincinnati team, and Alabama needs to protect home field. Combining all 3 gets us to -110 and we’ll take that price rather than laying heavy juice on any one favorite individually. Indiana ML / Texas Tech ML / Alabama ML (-110) — 1 Unit.

Full game over under is 6.5 so the books are expecting pitching to dominate this one and I agree. I saw the stat that YRFI has hit in Game 1 of the World Series 75% of the time over the last 20 years but I still feel confident in the matchup tonight obviously centered around Misiorowski. He’s hit NRI1 77% this season and 8 for 10 over his last 10. He threw a scoreless 1st inning the only time he faced the Rays this season 1,2,3 with 2 strikelouts. The Rays top 4 hitters are 2 for 11 against him lifetime. Nick Martinez will start for the Rays and he’s gone 32-5 NO runs in the 1st this season (84%). He’s gone NO runs in the 1st in 5 of 6 head to head matchups vs the Brewers including the matchup earlier this season where he went 1,2,3. The top 5 hitters for the Brewers are just 17 for 70 against him (.242). I got this line on Novig at -155 which is better than DK or FD for this one. If you haven’t used Novig before you can deposit $10 and get $50 for free using promo code KOFSPORTS. I will get a kickback for sign ups but nothing related to betting performance so don’t worry about me playing like the 1919 White Sox in the World Series.