Today's premium betting card.

We’re backing Tampa Bay to punch its ticket to the World Series at home behind Freddy Peralta who has been absolutely lights out since joining this rotation. Peralta enters Game 6 with a 0.79 ERA this postseason and already dominated this Cleveland lineup in Game 2 throwing 6 scoreless innings with 6 Ks in Tampa Bay’s 3-1 win. Even better, this isn’t just a small postseason sample — Peralta is 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his last 9 appearances and he’s been especially dominant at Tropicana Field with a 0.99 ERA across his last 5 starts at home. Cleveland, meanwhile, is forced into a bullpen game with Gavin Williams being saved for a potential Game 7 after the Guardians already used several of their top relievers yesterday. Tampa Bay is in much better shape after Drew Rasmussen gave them 7 innings in Game 5 allowing the Rays to use only 3 relievers behind him. The Rays have now won back-to-back games in Cleveland, return home with a 3-2 series lead, and Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda have each collected 5 hits over the last 2 games as the offense has started to wake up. We have the hotter team, the significant starting-pitching advantage and the fresher bullpen with a trip to the World Series on the line. Finish the job Freddy!

Let’s keep it simple on Sunday and tease 2 home favorites through the most important numbers in football. New England is currently laying 7.5 so our 7-point teaser takes the Patriots all the way to -0.5, crossing both 7 and 3 and essentially asking them to beat the Jets at home. The Pats are coming off a 45-17 beatdown of Las Vegas, Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and 4 TDs, and now the offense gets a massive boost with A.J. Brown officially activated after missing the last 4 games. The Jets will also be without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Joseph Ossai and Dylan Parham, while DraftKings currently has 89% of ML money and 82% of spread money backing New England. Then we do the exact same thing with Kansas City, taking Chiefs -7.5 down to -0.5 at Arrowhead against the Chargers. KC is taking 58% of both spread bets and handle at -7.5, and historically the Chiefs have been extremely reliable winning this type of divisional home spot. Chargers are 0-5 despite playing a couple close games with good teams in recent weeks.

SAME PICK A DAY LATER after the rain out Let’s take the Rays to even up the series tonight behind Nick Martinez who absolutely owned this Cleveland lineup during the regular season. Martinez faced the Guardians 2 times and threw 13 scoreless innings, allowing just 7 hits, and 1 walk with 9 Ks while holding Cleveland to a ridiculous .159/.178/.182 slash line. He went 7 scoreless innings allowing only 3 hits in a 1-0 win at Cleveland in April then followed it with 6 scoreless allowing 4 hits and no walks in a 3-0 win in July — so Tampa is 2-0 in his 2 starts against Cleveland without the Guardians scoring a single run while he was on the mound. Martinez also put together an excellent season overall at 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 180 innings. Cleveland, meanwhile, has yet to name a traditional Game 4 starter and could piece this together with Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee, and Slade Cecconi after already using multiple high-leverage relievers in yesterday’s 3-2 win. Down 2-1, this is essentially a must-win for Tampa and we’re getting the pitcher who has already shut this exact opponent down twice at basically even money. Rays ML (-110).

We’re backing the Rebels at home in a massive ranked SEC matchup and laying just over a field goal. Ole Miss returns to Oxford for the first time in 3 weeks where the Rebels are 4-0 this season and they enter off a dominant 52-17 win over Vanderbilt. Missouri has been impressive at 5-1 but the Tigers remain without star RB Ahmad Hardy leaving Jamal Roberts to carry a massive workload against an Ole Miss team that should force Missouri to keep pace offensively. Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense have the firepower to create separation at home and we’re taking the Rebels to cover.