Today's premium betting card.

The Brewers haven’t announced a starting pitcher for tonight but they already have a significant advantage facing Rays starter Griffin Jax who they come in hitting .316 against and actually scored 5 runs off of him before he could even record an out earlier this season on 4/1 (no April Fools). The Brewers look like a team who can’t be stopped right now coming in on an 8 game winning streak in the playoffs including a sweep of the big bad Dodgers. I am always hesitant to bet on bullpen games but the Brewers had the 3rd best bullpen in the league this season. It also usually eliminates opposing lineups from seeing the same guy 2 or 3 times which is an advantage. Another POTENTIAL scenario is if the Brewers get an early multi run lead off of Jax (extremely possible) then they would bring Misiorowski out of the bullpen and that’s basically good night Tampa. The Brewers fans will also be well represented in the crowd like last night.

Well fuckin A a missed diving catch and a blown 4-0 lead and we are 0-2 in the World Series for the first time in our lives. Not backing down though and coming back with Rays moneyline tonight with Fredd Peralta on the mound. Peralta has been dominant down the stretch, going 7-0 with a 0.89 ERA over his last 10 appearances, and he’s been excellent at The Trop with a 1.45 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 37.1 innings since joining Tampa Bay. He’s carried that form into October as well, posting a 1.08 postseason ERA, with the Rays winning all 4 of his playoff appearances. Milwaukee counters with Robert Gasser, who has been outstanding himself, allowing just 1 run across 9 postseason innings, so we’re expecting another tight game rather than an easy matchup. The difference for us is Tampa’s home-field edge: the Rays went 55-26 at home during the regular season and are 4-1 at home this postseason. With their backs against the wall, their hottest starter on the mound and a return home after losing 2 one-run games in Milwaukee, we’ll back Tampa Bay to extend this series.

West Coast team in a 1 pm East cost game on a short week is why we are getting this number but still taking it. San Francisco enters 6-0, averaging 29.5 PPG with the NFL’s No. 2 offense in EPA/play, while its defense ranks 4th in scoring at 18.3 PPG allowed and 7th in defensive EPA/play. Atlanta sits just 2-4 allowing 25.5 PPG, and its biggest weakness is exactly where Brock Purdy can attack — the Falcons rank 28th against the pass at 252 yards allowed per game. San Francisco is banged up, particularly with Nick Bosa and Mike Evans out, but we’re getting some compensation in the number after the 49ers opened around -4.5 and are now just -2.5. 49ers are still the better team and should cover today.

Alt line parlay with 2 of the league’s most reliable backs and giving ourselves significant cushion from their standard rushing lines. McCaffrey enters averaging 58.3 rushing yards per game and has cleared 40 yards in 5 of 6 games, including 52, 75, 68, 68, and 64 yards in those 5. His standard line is sitting around 53.5-56.5, so dropping to 40+ gives us roughly 14-17 yards of breathing room. Then we pair him with Kyren at 50+ well below his standard line around 67.5-68.5. Williams is averaging 65.5 rushing yards per game, has reached at least 49 yards in each of his last 5, and gets an excellent matchup against a Raiders defense allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game, 5th-most in the NFL. We don’t need ceiling games from either back — we’re asking CMC for 40 when he’s averaging 58.3 and Kyren for 50 when he’s averaging 65.5. Two separate games, heavily discounted thresholds and plenty of cushion from the standard lines.