NFLPremium
Oct 20, 7:00 PM EDT
NFL Premium Pick
Premium Pick #1
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Confidence
★★★☆☆
Recommended Units
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Best Odds
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Recent Premium results
See the 10 most recent graded Premium plays from the last 30 days, including the original selections and analysis.
NBAMoneyline
×LossCeltics at Pistons
Celtics ML -120
Oct 20, 3:00 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
3 pm est tip off is weird but regardless it’s Opening Day for the Tatum MVP tour and I’ll hang my hat on that all season. From a value standpoint, the Celtics lost the Brown for PG trade by a million but that move is definitely going to unlock another level of Tatum. And it’s not just a healthy Tatum, the Celtics added one of the best offensive rebounders in the league Mitchell Robinson to give them more second and third chance points and at the rate they will hit their threes, that’s a lot of points. Boston went 4-0 in the preseason and the depth of this team will be a key factor, the bench players beat the Super Sixers who played their starters deep into the game last week. Detroit’s offense revolves around Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren but Boston is now much better equipped to defend Duren inside with Robinson and Neemias Queta. Duren averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds last season but his production dropped to just 10.5 points and 8.2 rebounds in the playoffs and taking away that Cunningham-Duren combination puts a lot more pressure on Detroit’s secondary scoring. We won’t get to take Celtics moneyline at -120 or better many times this season, so grab it while you can on Opening Day.
NFLPlayer Prop
×Loss49ers vs Commanders
George Kittle (SF) 50+ Receiving Yards / Jayden Daniels (Was) 25+ Rushing Yards -125
Oct 19, 8:15 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’re buying down 2 of the best weapons on the field tonight and giving ourselves plenty of cushion from their standard lines. Kittle enters with 268 receiving yards on 21 catches through 5 games. The matchup is exactly what we want too — Washington ranks 30th in TE coverage, has already allowed 7 TDs to tight ends, and Kittle played a season-high 92% of the snaps last week. Then we pair him with Daniels at just 25+ rushing yards, well below his standard prop around 39.5. Daniels has rushed for 31, 69, and 103 yards in his 3 games this season, clearing 25 in all 3, and he's coming off 103 rushing yards and 2 TDs in his return last week. Even better, Washington will be without leading RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, potentially putting even more of the offense on Daniels.
MLBMoneyline
✓WinRays vs Guardians
Rays ML -154
Oct 19, 8:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.65u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’re backing Tampa Bay to punch its ticket to the World Series at home behind Freddy Peralta who has been absolutely lights out since joining this rotation. Peralta enters Game 6 with a 0.79 ERA this postseason and already dominated this Cleveland lineup in Game 2 throwing 6 scoreless innings with 6 Ks in Tampa Bay’s 3-1 win. Even better, this isn’t just a small postseason sample — Peralta is 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his last 9 appearances and he’s been especially dominant at Tropicana Field with a 0.99 ERA across his last 5 starts at home. Cleveland, meanwhile, is forced into a bullpen game with Gavin Williams being saved for a potential Game 7 after the Guardians already used several of their top relievers yesterday. Tampa Bay is in much better shape after Drew Rasmussen gave them 7 innings in Game 5 allowing the Rays to use only 3 relievers behind him. The Rays have now won back-to-back games in Cleveland, return home with a 3-2 series lead, and Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda have each collected 5 hits over the last 2 games as the offense has started to wake up. We have the hotter team, the significant starting-pitching advantage and the fresher bullpen with a trip to the World Series on the line. Finish the job Freddy!
NFLSpread
×LossBills at Raiders
Bills (-5.5) -110
Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
Taking the Bills to cover in Vegas. The Bills enter 4-1 with the NFL’s highest-scoring offense at 32.8 PPG, averaging a league-best 6.7 yards per play, and they get an excellent matchup against a Raiders defense allowing 6.1 yards per play and 3.0 points per drive since Week 3. The biggest mismatch comes on the ground, where Buffalo owns the No. 1 ranked rushing attack against a Las Vegas run defense ranked 25th, and James Cook enters averaging 5.6 yards per carry with 532 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Josh Allen and this offense just hung 37 points on the Rams, and now Buffalo gets a Raiders team that has dropped 2 straight after its 3-0 start. Vegas can score enough to make this uncomfortable, but we trust Allen and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense to eventually create separation against a defense that hasn’t shown it can consistently get stops.
NFLSpread
✓Win2 Team 7 Point Teaser
Patriots (-0.5) / Chiefs (-0.5) -150
Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.67u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
Let’s keep it simple on Sunday and tease 2 home favorites through the most important numbers in football. New England is currently laying 7.5 so our 7-point teaser takes the Patriots all the way to -0.5, crossing both 7 and 3 and essentially asking them to beat the Jets at home. The Pats are coming off a 45-17 beatdown of Las Vegas, Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and 4 TDs, and now the offense gets a massive boost with A.J. Brown officially activated after missing the last 4 games. The Jets will also be without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Joseph Ossai and Dylan Parham, while DraftKings currently has 89% of ML money and 82% of spread money backing New England. Then we do the exact same thing with Kansas City, taking Chiefs -7.5 down to -0.5 at Arrowhead against the Chargers. KC is taking 58% of both spread bets and handle at -7.5, and historically the Chiefs have been extremely reliable winning this type of divisional home spot. Chargers are 0-5 despite playing a couple close games with good teams in recent weeks.
NFLPlayer Prop
×LossAlternate Line Player Prop Parlay
Drake Maye (NE) 200+ Passing Yards / Derrick Henry (Bal) 70+ Rushing Yards -139
Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’re buying down 2 of our favorite player yardage spots on Sunday and pairing them together at -139. Maye enters averaging 245.6 passing yards per game and has thrown for 200+ in 3 of his last 4, including 269 and 374 yards over his last 2 games. He now gets the Jets at home with New England’s offense coming off a 45-point, 536-yard explosion, and Maye is fresh off completing 26 of 34 for 374 yards and 4 TDs against Las Vegas. Then we pair him with Derrick Henry 70+ rushing yards, buying well below his season average of 95.2 rushing yards per game. Henry has already piled up 476 yards and 7 TDs on 113 carries, averaging a massive 22.6 attempts per game. With Lamar Jackson officially out and Tyler Huntley starting, Baltimore has every reason to lean even harder on Henry and the ground game rather than putting this matchup on its backup QB.
NFLPlayer Prop
×LossPanthers at Eagles
Darren Waller (Car) Over 27.5 Receiving Yards -110
Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
Waller has cleared 27.5 receiving yards in all 4 games this season, finishing with 28, 33, 51, and 36 yards, and he’s seen 14 targets over his last 2 games. He’s averaging 37.0 receiving yards per game, while the KofSports projection model has him at 36.8 yards today — a +9.3 yard edge and 33.8% above the DraftKings line. Philadelphia has been solid against tight ends overall, but the Eagles are still allowing 48.8 receiving yards per game to the position, including 67 and 88 yards to TEs over their last 2 games. We’re not asking Waller for a ceiling game here — 3 catches at his season average of 11.4 yards per reception gets us over the number. The volume is trending up, the model sees value, and he’s already cleared this line in every game he’s played.
MLBMoneyline
✓WinRays at Guardians
Rays ML -110
Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.91u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
SAME PICK A DAY LATER after the rain out
Let’s take the Rays to even up the series tonight behind Nick Martinez who absolutely owned this Cleveland lineup during the regular season. Martinez faced the Guardians 2 times and threw 13 scoreless innings, allowing just 7 hits, and 1 walk with 9 Ks while holding Cleveland to a ridiculous .159/.178/.182 slash line. He went 7 scoreless innings allowing only 3 hits in a 1-0 win at Cleveland in April then followed it with 6 scoreless allowing 4 hits and no walks in a 3-0 win in July — so Tampa is 2-0 in his 2 starts against Cleveland without the Guardians scoring a single run while he was on the mound. Martinez also put together an excellent season overall at 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 180 innings. Cleveland, meanwhile, has yet to name a traditional Game 4 starter and could piece this together with Joey Cantillo, Tanner Bibee, and Slade Cecconi after already using multiple high-leverage relievers in yesterday’s 3-2 win. Down 2-1, this is essentially a must-win for Tampa and we’re getting the pitcher who has already shut this exact opponent down twice at basically even money. Rays ML (-110).
NCAAFSpread
✓WinOle Miss vs Missouri
Ole Miss (-4) -108
Oct 17, 3:30 PM EDT
Result
+0.93u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’re backing the Rebels at home in a massive ranked SEC matchup and laying just over a field goal. Ole Miss returns to Oxford for the first time in 3 weeks where the Rebels are 4-0 this season and they enter off a dominant 52-17 win over Vanderbilt. Missouri has been impressive at 5-1 but the Tigers remain without star RB Ahmad Hardy leaving Jamal Roberts to carry a massive workload against an Ole Miss team that should force Missouri to keep pace offensively. Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense have the firepower to create separation at home and we’re taking the Rebels to cover.
NCAAFSpread
✓WinOhio St vs Indiana
Ohio State (-3) -108
Oct 17, 12:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.93u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’re backing the Buckeyes in a massive No. 4 vs. No. 5 showdown in Bloomington and laying the key number of 3. Both teams have been dominant statistically — Ohio State is averaging 42.7 PPG while allowing just 13.2 with Indiana at 40.2 PPG and 11.8 allowed — but the Buckeyes have been far more reliable against the number, entering 4-2 ATS compared to just 1-5 ATS for Indiana. This is also a revenge spot after Indiana beat Ohio State 13-10 in last season’s Big Ten Championship despite Jeremiah Smith torching the Hoosiers for 8 catches and 144 yards. Indiana’s secondary now has to deal with Smith again without star CB D’Angelo Ponds, giving Ohio State’s explosive passing attack a matchup we want to attack. The betting splits back the Buckeyes too: DraftKings currently has 68% of spread bets but 79% of the money on Ohio State -3, an 11-point positive handle-to-ticket discrepancy, while 82% of ML money is also on OSU. This should be a heavyweight fight, but at exactly -3 we get the protection of a push if Ohio State wins by a field goal. We’re trusting the more battle-tested roster, the matchup through the air and the heavier money backing the Buckeyes — Ohio State -3.