Today's premium betting card.

We’re combining 2 sizable favorites and taking the spreads completely out of the equation. The Rams draw an 0-6 Chargers team that has struggled on both sides of the ball, ranking last in offensive EPA per play while turning the ball over an NFL-high 15 times. Los Angeles enters with the league’s No. 1 offense at 399.1 yards per game, and Matthew Stafford has thrown 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception over his last 3 games. The Chargers will also be without Derwin James, weakening an already difficult matchup against Stafford and Puka Nacua. New England gets a 1-5 Miami team whose defense has allowed an NFL-worst 116.8 opponent passer rating, generated a league-low 6 sacks, and allowed opponents to convert 52.1% of third downs. That sets up well for Drake Maye, who threw for 321 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Instead of asking the Rams and Patriots to cover roughly a touchdown apiece, we simply need both favorites to win.

We’re taking the points completely out of the equation and combining 4 of the strongest favorites on Saturday’s college football slate. Georgia is favored by roughly 12 against Florida, and we already like the matchup enough to back the Bulldogs’ team total — here, we simply need them to win. Miami enters its road matchup at North Carolina as roughly a 14-point favorite, giving us plenty of separation between the market expectation and what we need from the Hurricanes. Indiana is laying around 20 against Minnesota, making the Hoosiers one of the biggest favorites on the board, while BYU is favored by roughly 16.5 at home against Arizona State. Instead of asking any of these teams to cover double-digit numbers, we’re combining all 4 moneylines at a very playable price. Four favorites, four outright wins.

We’re going right back to the NBA alt-line formula that’s been working for us and buying down 2 elite scorers to numbers well below their normal expectations. Maxey has been incredibly consistent to open the season, scoring 28, 32, 26, 29, and 27 points, clearing 20+ in all 5 games while averaging 28.4 PPG. His standard line tonight sits at 23.5 and he’s already scored 28 against this same Knicks team this season. Then we pair him with Curry at just 20+ points, giving us plenty of cushion from his standard scoring line around 27.5. We don’t need either guy to have a ceiling game — we’re asking 2 of the league’s premier scorers to get us 20 points apiece. The alt-line formula has treated us well recently, so we’re going back to it at a very playable price.

We’re keeping this one simple and asking 3 big favorites to win their games outright. Boston is the strongest favorite on tonight’s NBA board and gets a struggling Chicago team at home, where the Celtics have already started the season 3-0. Detroit comes in 4-1 and draws a Brooklyn team still searching for its first win at 0-4, so we’ll gladly remove the spread and simply ask Cade Cunningham and the Pistons to take care of business. Miami rounds it out at home against a shorthanded Indiana squad missing Tyrese Haliburton and several other rotation pieces, with the Heat favored by more than 7 points in the standard market. Instead of laying double-digit or sizable spreads with any of these teams, we’re combining the 3 moneylines and getting essentially even money.

Alternate line tonight to get Green Bay below the key number of 3 rather than laying the standard -3.5, which means any Packers win by a field goal or more gets us home. Green Bay comes in 4-3 after a tough 20-17 loss at Detroit, but the Packers defense has been playing excellent football, allowing just 13.5 points per game over the last 4 while forcing 11 turnovers during that stretch. Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off an ugly 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay in which Bryce Young turned it over 3 times and the Panthers coughed it up 4 times overall. The short-week injury report favors Green Bay as well: Carolina will be without Jaelan Phillips, Damien Lewis, Akayleb Evans, and Torricelli Simpkins III, while the Packers get starting guard Aaron Banks back after he progressed to full participation. Green Bay has also been one of the NFL's best home teams against the number under Matt LaFleur, going 39-25 ATS at Lambeau since 2019. We could take the better payout at -3.5 but with the game landing on exactly 3 always in play, we'll sacrifice some juice for the much better number.

When darkness turns to light, it ends tonight. Milwaukee had its chance to finish the job last night before Tampa Bay escaped with a 12-inning win, but now the Brewers hand the baseball to the exact guy they want on the mound with a World Series title one win away. Jacob Misiorowski gets the start on regular rest after holding Tampa Bay to just 1 run over 5 innings in Game 1 and he’s coming off a regular season in which he led MLB with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP. The Brewers are 15-1 in his last 16 starts. The pitching situation on the other side couldn’t look much different. Tampa Bay burned through 7 pitchers in last night’s 12-inning game, including using potential Game 5 starter Nick Martinez for 2 innings and still hasn’t named a starter. Drew Rasmussen would be the obvious ace to turn to, but he’d be working on only 3 days’ rest, something the Rays have been hesitant to do after deliberately giving him extra recovery time this season because of his extensive elbow history. That leaves Milwaukee with a massive starting-pitching advantage and a Rays staff trying to piece together 27 outs after an exhausting Game 4. The Brewers let one slip away last night. With Misiorowski on the mound and Tampa’s pitching staff stretched to its limits, we’re backing Milwaukee to finish the job tonight.