NCAAFPremium
Sep 5, 3:30 PM EDT
NCAAF Premium Pick
Premium Pick #1
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Selection locked
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Recommended Units
Locked
Best Odds
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Premium analysis locked
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See the 10 most recent graded Premium plays from the last 30 days, including the original selections and analysis.
NCAAFSpread
✓Win2 team parlay 1st half alternate spreads
Alabama (-9.5) / Texas (-11.5) -125
Sep 5, 12:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.80u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’re backing two powerhouse programs at home against much weaker opponents and simply asking them to get off to strong starts. Alabama is nearly a four-touchdown favorite against an East Carolina team that returns just two starters from last season, while five-star QB Keelon Russell makes his highly anticipated first career start for the Tide. Texas is laying nearly 30 against a Texas State defense that allowed 29 points per game last season, and Arch Manning now gets another elite weapon in preseason All-American WR Cam Coleman. We don’t need either powerhouse to completely blow the doors off — 14-3 Alabama and 17-3 Texas both get the job done. Let’s go Alabama 1H -9.5 / Texas 1H -11.5 at -125.
NCAAFTotal
✓WinCoastal Carolina / West Virginia
OVER (54.5) -110
Sep 5, 12:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.91u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
We’ve got two defenses coming off rough seasons and a number we think is very reachable. Coastal Carolina allowed 33.1 points and 443.8 yards per game last year, including a brutal 208 rushing yards per game, while West Virginia allowed 30.8 points and 409.2 yards per game. That’s more than 60 combined points allowed per game between these two defenses last season. The offensive upside is there too. West Virginia enters Year 2 under Rich Rodriguez and added Cam Cook, who led the entire FBS with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 TDs last season, to an offense built to play fast and attack on the ground. Coastal also begins the Ryan Beard era with a revamped offense and several new pieces. We don’t need an insane shootout here — 35-20, 38-17 or 31-24 all get us home. Let’s lock in Coastal Carolina / West Virginia OVER 54.5. Alexa, play Take Me Home, Country Roads by John Denver on volume 10! ⛰️
NCAAFMoneyline
✓WinCross Sport Parlay
Miami ML, USC ML, Dodgers ML, Alabama ML, Oregon ML -196
Sep 4, 9:00 PM EDT
Result
+1.02u
Recommended Risk
2 units
Confidence
★★★★★
Review original analysis
IF there was a play that was worth a max bet to make up for some of the damage this week, this would be the one. 1 unit wins .51 so do the math and scale how you want. I’m in no position to suggest units with the way this week has gone but I will be personally smashing this. I view it as there is no way (and I know it’s crazy to say) that USC, Miami, Alabama, or Oregon lose. All 4 are favored by 3+ touchdowns and the much better team on paper and real life. It comes down to the Dodgers tonight with Blake Snell on the mound who has been great since his return posting a 1.17 ERA. The Dodgers lineup will go against Jackson Kent who has a 5.59 ERA in his 4 career starts and the Nats have lost 3 of those while getting outscored by 15 runs combined. The Nats also have the 3rd worst bullpen in the league behind him.
NCAAFTotal
✓WinUSC vs Fresno St
USC Total Points Over (36.5) -113
Sep 4, 9:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.88u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
Hey, same pick as last week that didn’t hit when we needed 50 and they put up 42. USC had 28 at halftime so they were well on track before taking their foot off the gas. They had 505 yards and QB Jayden Maiava went 25 of 29 for 286 yards and 3 total touchdowns. Talk about efficient. Fresno State had good defensive numbers last year but it’s much easier to shut down teams like Southern and San Jose St than top tier powerhouses like USC. The last time these two played was in 2022 and USC put up 45 points. AND under Lincoln Riley, USC has averaged 56.9 points against non-Power opponents since 2022.
NCAAFTotal
✓WinMiami at Stanford
Over (47.5) -110
Sep 4, 9:00 PM EDT
Result
+0.91u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
I think we see some points tonight. Miami brings in Darian Mensah after he threw for 3,973 yards and 34 TDs at Duke last season and he joins an absolutely loaded offense featuring Malachi Toney (1,211 receiving yards, 10 TDs) and Mark Fletcher Jr. (1,129 rushing yards, 12 TDs). Stanford already has a game under its belt and scored 37 points against Hawaii, with new QB Davis Warren throwing for 310 yards while RB Micah Ford ran for 99 yards and 3 TDs. Miami should do most of the heavy lifting here, but if Stanford can contribute 14-17 points, I think we're in great shape. Give me Miami/Stanford OVER 47.5.
MLBTotal
✓WinTwins at White Sox
First 5 Innings Under (5.5) -140
Sep 4, 7:40 PM EDT
Result
+0.71u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
I know it’s our second under this week in the windy city and the first one did not go the way we expected but the wind isn’t forecasted to be as strong tonight and we’ve got two starting pitchers with dominate numbers against the opposing lineups. Erick Fedde has held the Twins lineup to a .151 avg in 60 at bats. He just pitched against them last Saturday and held them to 2 runs over 5 innings in a game that was 2-2 after 5. He also threw 5 scoreless innings against them earlier this season on 6/3. Zebby Matthews will pitch for the Twins and he just threw 8.1 innings where he only allowed 1 run against this same White Sox lineup that he will face tonight. Long term, he’s held them to a .177 avg in 83 at bats. Both these pitchers are 2-0 to the UNDER 5.5 in the first 5 innings vs these opposing lineups this season.
NCAAFMoneyline
×LossCross Sport Parlay
Georgia Tech ML / Dodgers ML -111
Sep 3, 8:00 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
Alright, I know you all have been waiting on the CFB pick to drop for tonight and this is what I landed on as feeling it’s a safer play than attacking a spread or over under. We’re taking two heavy favorites and cutting out the spreads to get a much better price. Georgia Tech beat Colorado 27-20 last season while rushing for 320 yards, and tonight Colorado is projected to start 11 new players on defense while GT adds Justice Haynes, who averaged 122 rushing yards per game and 7.1 YPC at Michigan last season. We’ll pair them with the 40-28 Dodgers at home against St. Louis. LA sends Tarik Skubal to the mound with a 2.84 ERA, 153 strikeouts in 126.2 innings and a .211 opponent batting average, while Cardinals starter Quinn Mathews comes in with a 5.03 ERA. The Dodgers are also 80-52 as favorites this season. Instead of laying -250+ on either team or asking GT to cover 6.5, give me both favorites simply to win at -112.
NCAAFPlayer Prop
×LossGeorgia Tech vs Colorado
Justice Haynes (GT) Rushing Yards Over (89.5) -111
Sep 3, 8:00 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★★★
Review original analysis
This line is up from 71.5 to 89.5 but I would be comfortable taking him to go over 100 tonight. Georgia Tech ran all over Colorado last season for 320 rushing yards on 47 carries, and now they add Justice Haynes, who averaged an insane 7.1 yards per carry and 122 rushing yards per game at Michigan last season. Colorado returns just ONE defensive starter, while GT will be breaking in a first-time starting QB in Alberto Mendoza, so I expect them to lean heavily on Haynes and the ground game. We only need 90 yards against a completely rebuilt defense that got gashed on the ground last year. Give me Haynes OVER 89.5.
MLBMoneyline
✓WinAstros vs White Sox
Astros ML -163
Sep 3, 2:10 PM EDT
Result
+0.61u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
The Astros will have Hunter Brown on the mound and he’s got good numbers against this White Sox lineup holding them to a .182 avg in 60 at bats. The White Sox will have Luis Castillo pitching who has decent numbers long term against this Astros lineup but I’m focusing on his matchups against them earlier this season specifically on 4/11 where the Astros scored 7 runs in 3.1 innings against him. Castillo has posted a 6.45 ERA since being traded to the White Sox so I like that too. A head to head number that REALLY stands out is Yordan Alvarez hitting .500 (12 for 24) with 5 homeruns against him. The Astros have gone 4-2 vs the White Sox this season and they have covered the run line -1.5 in all 4 wins for those of you who want better value. I’m going moneyline to prove to myself that I’m still capable of winning a bet.
MLBPlayer Prop
×LossHit Parlay
Yordan Alvarez (Hou) / Wilyer Abreu (Bos) -118
Sep 3, 2:10 PM EDT
Result
-1.00u
Recommended Risk
1 unit
Confidence
★★★☆☆
Review original analysis
Yordan Alvarez may be Luis Castillo’s biological father, he’s gone 12 for 24 with 5 homeruns against him lifetime. Those are numbers that fathers put up against their sons playing backyard whiffle ball. Type shit! The only risk is if he pitches around him. Alvarez leads the league in batting avg at .317. Abreu has been hot with 5 hits over his last 2 games and hitting safely in 6 of his last 7 games. He has been great in a small sample size against O’s Brandon Young going 2 for 3 with a double and a homerun which came in the same game on 4/24 at Camden Yards where tonight’s game will be.