Today's premium betting card.

Alright, I know you all have been waiting on the CFB pick to drop for tonight and this is what I landed on as feeling it’s a safer play than attacking a spread or over under. We’re taking two heavy favorites and cutting out the spreads to get a much better price. Georgia Tech beat Colorado 27-20 last season while rushing for 320 yards, and tonight Colorado is projected to start 11 new players on defense while GT adds Justice Haynes, who averaged 122 rushing yards per game and 7.1 YPC at Michigan last season. We’ll pair them with the 40-28 Dodgers at home against St. Louis. LA sends Tarik Skubal to the mound with a 2.84 ERA, 153 strikeouts in 126.2 innings and a .211 opponent batting average, while Cardinals starter Quinn Mathews comes in with a 5.03 ERA. The Dodgers are also 80-52 as favorites this season. Instead of laying -250+ on either team or asking GT to cover 6.5, give me both favorites simply to win at -112.

This line is up from 71.5 to 89.5 but I would be comfortable taking him to go over 100 tonight. Georgia Tech ran all over Colorado last season for 320 rushing yards on 47 carries, and now they add Justice Haynes, who averaged an insane 7.1 yards per carry and 122 rushing yards per game at Michigan last season. Colorado returns just ONE defensive starter, while GT will be breaking in a first-time starting QB in Alberto Mendoza, so I expect them to lean heavily on Haynes and the ground game. We only need 90 yards against a completely rebuilt defense that got gashed on the ground last year. Give me Haynes OVER 89.5.

Yordan Alvarez may be Luis Castillo’s biological father, he’s gone 12 for 24 with 5 homeruns against him lifetime. Those are numbers that fathers put up against their sons playing backyard whiffle ball. Type shit! The only risk is if he pitches around him. Alvarez leads the league in batting avg at .317. Abreu has been hot with 5 hits over his last 2 games and hitting safely in 6 of his last 7 games. He has been great in a small sample size against O’s Brandon Young going 2 for 3 with a double and a homerun which came in the same game on 4/24 at Camden Yards where tonight’s game will be.

The Rays took care of business last night and are facing a pitcher who only has 1 career start at the big league level tonight so we are jumping on them. It looks like it’s going to be Griffin Jax pitching for the Rays which is fine but I’ll like this play a lot more if McClanahan pitches for TB which is who Draftkings has listed as the start but ESPN app shows Jax. Dodgers will be at home with Yamamoto on the mound and he has limited action vs the Cardinals in his career but it’s been great not allowing any runs in 11 innings of work. Cardinals haven’t announced a start but whoever it is won’t go toe to toe with Yamamoto.

The Red Sox had a great comeback win the other night and almost came back last night but the L was really because they put a pitcher out there with limited MLB action. The Mariners have lost 4 of their last 5 so we are taking the Red Sox to win the series today. They are going to face Bryce Miller who I would like to point out, the M’s have been outscored 41-2 in his last 2 starts. 62-7 over his last 4 starts. The Sox lineup comes in hitting .286 against him as well. Patrick Sandoval will pitch for the Red Sox and they have gone 4-0 in his 4 starts at home this season. I’m taking moneyline because we desperately need a winner but the -1.5 at +153 is appealing with those Bryce Milley recent games losing by bigger fucking spreads than we will be taking in College Football this weekend.

Day action! The Padres lineup will face Brandon WIlliamson who comes in with a 10.03 ERA at home in 3 starts this season. He hasn’t pitched at the big league level since 4/29 when he lost 13-2 to the worst team in the league. He also has a 5.94 ERA in Triple and Double A this season so the guy is not a good pitcher. The Padres have been struggling but I think their bats will get going against Williamson. I don’t love that Machado isn’t in the lineup to start the game but it’s a good bat to have available late if needed in a key spot. Casey Mize will pitch for the Padres and he’s had some touch luck in a couple starts but he’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 starts which I feel like will be plenty good enough against Williamson today.

0-2 Monday put us in an uncomfortable spot but we are getting aggressive tonight and dropping the hammer! The Orioles have won 4 straight and the Rockies have lost 5 in a row while going 2-8 over their last 10. The most appealing part of this matchup is Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes who has posted a 10.03 ERA over his last 5 starts. It’s not like he had one bad outing either, he’s allowed 4, 3, 7, 7, 5, he’s allowed at least 1 homerun in all of those starts, and he’s given up 2+ walks in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Rockies have lost 8 of the 10 games that Hughes has pitched in this season. Kyle Bradish will pitch for the Orioles and he got pounded his last time out but he’s been solid this season with a 4.03 ERA. It’s really the time of the season to factor in teams fighting for playoff spots because they will be more motivated. The O’s are half a game out of the Wild Card right now and games like tonight vs one of the worst teams in the league are must win games. Am I worried about 90% of the bets on the Orioles? Yes, but that’s the risk we have to take in this day and age of legal sports betting.

The Cubs are 8 games behind the Brewers in the division but this one is going to have a Postseason feel to it tonight and we’ve got two pitchers going who have been good. 4 of the 6 head to head matchups between these two teams have gone under 9.5 this season. Clay Holmes takes the mound for the Cubs and he has a 1.96 ERA in 4 starts since being traded to the Cubs. Head to head vs Brewers checks out as well holding them to a .167 avg in 36 at bats. Kyle Harrison will pitch for the Brewers and he’s held the Cubs to 2 runs in 12 innings of work this season and he’s held them to a .140 avg lifetime. The wind is blowing out tonight which is why this number isn’t 7 or 7.5. So yes, a few balls might carry out but I still like these two starting pitchers to hold the opposing lineups to low numbers. Both bullpens have been good as well.

BOBBY! Last time we bet against BOBBY of the Mets he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings. He’s now had 2 recent horrendous starts where he’s allowed 15 earned runs and 19 hits in 7 innings. He also continued to struggle with his control and has given up 13 walks over his last 4 starts. The Rays are a lineup I trust to take advantage of Bobby tonight. Ian Seymour will pitch for TB and he hasn’t been bad but the Rays have lost 3 in a row with him on the mound. I still like his 3.77 ERA at home and the fact that the Rays have won 4 in a row while the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5. I know it’s a big moneyline but I’m making it a strong play and betting to win 1 unit on it.