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We’re going Under a massive total in Memphis tonight as the Grizzlies begin life without Ja Morant and essentially introduce an entirely new offense. Morant is now in Portland, while Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are also gone, leaving Memphis to replace the core that drove this offense for years. Ty Jerome takes over at point guard, with the Grizzlies building around a young group featuring Cedric Coward, rookie Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey. That’s a major amount of offensive creation and continuity to replace in Game 1, and we’re willing to bet there are some growing pains before everything clicks. Utah has plenty of defensive concerns of its own, which is why this number is sitting so high, but 241.5 gives us a ton of room — a 121-120 game still cashes the Under. Both teams averaged below 120 points per game last season, and Memphis scored just 114.7 PPG before completely rebuilding its offensive hierarchy. Edey could also become a much larger focal point without Ja, which gives Memphis a path toward more deliberate half-court possessions instead of relying on Morant constantly pushing tempo and creating early offense. The market has shown interest in the Under as well, with this total trading anywhere from roughly 239.5 to 242.5 today, making the 241.5 still available to us an attractive number. We don’t need a defensive masterpiece — we just don’t believe these 2 offenses need to combine for 242 points on Opening Night, especially with Memphis replacing Ja and virtually its entire former core.

Michkov has stayed Under this number in 10 of 11 games this season (90.9%) including 9 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5, with recent shot totals of just 2, 3, 1, 0, and 0. Now, we’re not ignoring the fact that Michkov is HOT offensively — he has scored in 3 straight games with 4 goals during that stretch, including a 2-goal performance last game. But that scoring streak hasn’t come with increased shot volume. He has produced those 4 goals on only 6 shots on goal, staying Under 2.5 SOG in 2 of those 3 games, including the game where he scored twice. That’s exactly the distinction we’re targeting. His overall volume remains low at around 1.3 SOG on 3.5 shot attempts per game and his ice time has remained below 15 minutes in 4 straight games. We’re not betting against Michkov scoring or continuing to play well — we’re simply asking him to finish with 2 shots or fewer, something he has already done in 90.9% of his games this season. The recent goals make this one look a little scarier on the surface but the underlying shot volume still strongly favors the Under.

We’re backing Tampa Bay to punch its ticket to the World Series at home behind Freddy Peralta who has been absolutely lights out since joining this rotation. Peralta enters Game 6 with a 0.79 ERA this postseason and already dominated this Cleveland lineup in Game 2 throwing 6 scoreless innings with 6 Ks in Tampa Bay’s 3-1 win. Even better, this isn’t just a small postseason sample — Peralta is 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his last 9 appearances and he’s been especially dominant at Tropicana Field with a 0.99 ERA across his last 5 starts at home. Cleveland, meanwhile, is forced into a bullpen game with Gavin Williams being saved for a potential Game 7 after the Guardians already used several of their top relievers yesterday. Tampa Bay is in much better shape after Drew Rasmussen gave them 7 innings in Game 5 allowing the Rays to use only 3 relievers behind him. The Rays have now won back-to-back games in Cleveland, return home with a 3-2 series lead, and Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda have each collected 5 hits over the last 2 games as the offense has started to wake up. We have the hotter team, the significant starting-pitching advantage and the fresher bullpen with a trip to the World Series on the line. Finish the job Freddy!

Let’s keep it simple on Sunday and tease 2 home favorites through the most important numbers in football. New England is currently laying 7.5 so our 7-point teaser takes the Patriots all the way to -0.5, crossing both 7 and 3 and essentially asking them to beat the Jets at home. The Pats are coming off a 45-17 beatdown of Las Vegas, Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and 4 TDs, and now the offense gets a massive boost with A.J. Brown officially activated after missing the last 4 games. The Jets will also be without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Joseph Ossai and Dylan Parham, while DraftKings currently has 89% of ML money and 82% of spread money backing New England. Then we do the exact same thing with Kansas City, taking Chiefs -7.5 down to -0.5 at Arrowhead against the Chargers. KC is taking 58% of both spread bets and handle at -7.5, and historically the Chiefs have been extremely reliable winning this type of divisional home spot. Chargers are 0-5 despite playing a couple close games with good teams in recent weeks.