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We’re going Under in Fort Worth and backing TCU’s defense to slow down a West Virginia offense averaging 37.6 PPG and 272 rushing yards per game. That strength runs directly into a TCU defense allowing only 12.2 PPG and 92 rushing yards per game and the Horned Frogs have gone Under in 5 of 6 games this season. TCU’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either at just 24.0 PPG and they could be without 2 of their top 3 running backs with Jeremy Payne doubtful and Landon Walker out. We also have some market support with the total opening around 58.5 and getting bet down while multiple models project this game around 53-54 total points. West Virginia’s defense is the obvious concern but at 57.5 we have enough cushion to back TCU’s defense and a relatively limited Frogs offense to keep this below the number. The market signal is hard to ignore too — 86% of DraftKings tickets are on the Over while 99% of the tracked Circa money is on the Under.

Bounce back for Tatum in Boston’s home opener after one of the worst shooting performances we’ll see from him all season. Tatum scored only 13 points on 6-of-23 shooting in the opener against Detroit but the most important number for us is the 23 shot attempts — the volume was absolutely there, the shots simply didn’t fall. Now he comes home with plenty of motivation after Boston blew a 22-point lead, Tatum took heavy criticism for his performance, and speculation surrounding his role in the Jaylen Brown trade has only intensified after Brown publicly challenged Tatum’s version of how he learned about the deal. This is exactly the type of spot where we expect Boston’s franchise player to come out aggressive. The matchup certainly hasn’t bothered him either: Tatum has averaged 27.6 points over his last 10 games against the Knicks, with scoring performances of 42, 40, 37, 32, and 25 included in that stretch, while averaging 21.1 field-goal attempts per game. He also dropped 37 points on just 18 shots against New York in Boston’s 2024-25 home opener.

We’re going Under a massive total in Memphis tonight as the Grizzlies begin life without Ja Morant and essentially introduce an entirely new offense. Morant is now in Portland, while Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are also gone, leaving Memphis to replace the core that drove this offense for years. Ty Jerome takes over at point guard, with the Grizzlies building around a young group featuring Cedric Coward, rookie Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey. That’s a major amount of offensive creation and continuity to replace in Game 1, and we’re willing to bet there are some growing pains before everything clicks. Utah has plenty of defensive concerns of its own, which is why this number is sitting so high, but 241.5 gives us a ton of room — a 121-120 game still cashes the Under. Both teams averaged below 120 points per game last season, and Memphis scored just 114.7 PPG before completely rebuilding its offensive hierarchy. Edey could also become a much larger focal point without Ja, which gives Memphis a path toward more deliberate half-court possessions instead of relying on Morant constantly pushing tempo and creating early offense. The market has shown interest in the Under as well, with this total trading anywhere from roughly 239.5 to 242.5 today, making the 241.5 still available to us an attractive number. We don’t need a defensive masterpiece — we just don’t believe these 2 offenses need to combine for 242 points on Opening Night, especially with Memphis replacing Ja and virtually its entire former core.

Michkov has stayed Under this number in 10 of 11 games this season (90.9%) including 9 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5, with recent shot totals of just 2, 3, 1, 0, and 0. Now, we’re not ignoring the fact that Michkov is HOT offensively — he has scored in 3 straight games with 4 goals during that stretch, including a 2-goal performance last game. But that scoring streak hasn’t come with increased shot volume. He has produced those 4 goals on only 6 shots on goal, staying Under 2.5 SOG in 2 of those 3 games, including the game where he scored twice. That’s exactly the distinction we’re targeting. His overall volume remains low at around 1.3 SOG on 3.5 shot attempts per game and his ice time has remained below 15 minutes in 4 straight games. We’re not betting against Michkov scoring or continuing to play well — we’re simply asking him to finish with 2 shots or fewer, something he has already done in 90.9% of his games this season. The recent goals make this one look a little scarier on the surface but the underlying shot volume still strongly favors the Under.