Broncos vs Chiefs Anytime TD Scorer Picks: Best MNF Bets

Broncos vs. Chiefs Anytime TD Scorer Picks: 2 Best Bets for MNF

Monday Night Football closes out Week 1 with an AFC West matchup as the Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and one of the most interesting markets on the board is the anytime touchdown scorer market.

Rather than simply targeting the players with the shortest touchdown odds, we're using the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings to look for players whose combination of market price, red-zone involvement, usage, recent production, matchup and game environment creates an attractive scoring opportunity.

The KOF TD Score weighs:

Market
Red Zone
Usage
Recent Form
Matchup
Environment

Remember: the KOF Score is not a player's predicted probability of scoring a touchdown. It's a ranking system designed to compare touchdown candidates using multiple factors.

Two Kansas City pass catchers stand above the rest of tonight's plus-money options.

Here are our two favorite Broncos vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer picks for Monday Night Football.

1. Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+185)

KOF TD Score: 69.6 — Above Average
Odds: +185
Market Implied Probability: 38.5%

Our favorite anytime touchdown bet tonight is Rashee Rice at +185.

Rice enters the matchup with a 69.6 KOF TD Score, the highest rating of any player from Broncos-Chiefs in the current KofSports rankings.

What makes Rice particularly interesting is the price.

While Kansas City running back Kenneth Walker III is priced around even money to score, Rice gives us a chance to target one of Patrick Mahomes' primary weapons at nearly 2-to-1 odds.

Other sportsbooks have recently priced Rice in the same general range, including +165 at BetMGM, where his odds represented approximately a 37.7% implied scoring probability.

Rice's 2025 production gives us another reason to be interested.

Despite playing only 8 games, he caught 53 passes on 78 targets for 571 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. He also added another touchdown as a runner.

That gives us a player who scored 6 total touchdowns in 8 games during his abbreviated 2025 season.

Denver isn't an easy matchup. The Broncos allowed only about 1.1 passing touchdowns per game last season, ranking among the league's better defenses in that category.

That's part of the reason we're getting this kind of price.

But Rice has another interesting touchdown trend on his side: he has scored the first touchdown 5 times since the beginning of the 2023 season, the most among active Kansas City players.

We don't need him to score first tonight. We simply need Mahomes to find one of his top targets in the end zone at some point during the game.

There also shouldn't be much concern surrounding Rice's knee designation entering Monday night. He was a full participant in practice throughout the week and carries no final game designation.

At +185, Rice combines scoring history, offensive involvement and an attractive plus-money price.

KofSports Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+185)

2. Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+210)

KOF TD Score: 65.5 — Above Average
Odds: +210
Market Implied Probability: 32.3%

Our second touchdown bet goes to one of the most familiar combinations in football:

Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce (and camera to Taylor Swift).

Kelce checks in with a 65.5 KOF TD Score, making him the second-highest-rated Broncos-Chiefs player among the plus-money options highlighted by our current rankings.

And we're getting +210.

That's the part that gets our attention.

Kelce remains one of Mahomes' most trusted targets and enters his 14th NFL season after leading Kansas City in receptions and receiving yards in 2025 while tying for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. He also broke the Chiefs' franchise career touchdown record last season.

For an anytime touchdown market, that's exactly the kind of relationship we're willing to target at better than 2-to-1.

Kelce's career touchdown history is also difficult to ignore.

He has scored the first touchdown 20 times during his career, the most among active Chiefs players.

Again, we're not betting Kelce to score first.

But that statistic helps illustrate just how consistently he's been featured around the goal line throughout his career.

There's another factor that could matter tonight.

Kansas City will be without starting left tackle Josh Simmons, who was ruled out with a back injury.

Against a dangerous Denver pass rush, Mahomes may need to get the ball out quickly rather than consistently waiting for longer routes to develop.

That could increase the importance of familiar short and intermediate options such as Kelce and Rice — particularly when Kansas City gets close to the goal line.

Kelce is not the player he was five years ago, and we're not pretending otherwise.

But +210 doesn't require us to price him like peak Travis Kelce.

We're getting better than 2-to-1 on one of the greatest touchdown-producing tight ends in NFL history, playing with the quarterback who has spent years looking for him in high-leverage situations.

That's enough value for us to make Kelce our second MNF touchdown bet.

KofSports Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Research NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers With KofSports

Touchdown betting is about more than simply finding the player most likely to score.

Price matters.

A running back priced at -115 may have a higher raw probability of reaching the end zone than a receiver priced at +185, but that doesn't automatically make the running back the better bet.

That's why the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings combine several factors rather than ranking players exclusively by sportsbook odds.

The model considers:

• Current anytime TD odds
• Red-zone involvement
• Player usage
• Recent scoring production
• Opponent matchup
• Game environment

The result is the KOF TD Score, which allows bettors to quickly compare touchdown candidates across the NFL.

→ View the KofSports NFL Anytime TD Rankings

Broncos vs. Chiefs Anytime TD Scorer Picks Summary

Player

Anytime TD Odds

KOF Score

Rating

Rashee Rice

+185

69.6

Above Average

Travis Kelce

+210

65.5

Above Average

Our Favorite Anytime TD Bet

Rashee Rice Anytime TD (+185) is our favorite touchdown scorer bet for Broncos-Chiefs.

Rice ranks ahead of every other player from tonight's game in the current KofSports TD Rankings, and we're still getting a substantial plus-money price.

He scored 6 total touchdowns in 8 games last season, including 5 receiving touchdowns, and returns as one of Mahomes' primary weapons.

Kelce is our second selection because of the price.

At +210, we don't need Kelce to have an enormous receiving game. One successful Kansas City red-zone possession could be enough.

What About Kenneth Walker III?

Kenneth Walker III deserves consideration.

In fact, sportsbooks currently view him as the most likely touchdown scorer in tonight's game.

Recent BetMGM odds had Walker around -110, implying roughly a 52% probability of scoring at least once.

But there's an important distinction between:

Most likely to score

and

Best bet at the available price.

We're hunting for plus-money opportunities in this article.

Rice at +185 and Kelce at +210 give us substantially larger potential returns while both remain prominent pieces of the Kansas City passing offense.

Walker can absolutely score tonight.

We simply prefer the risk/reward profile offered by Rice and Kelce.

More Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props

Touchdowns aren't the only bets we're targeting for Monday Night Football.

We've also identified three Broncos vs. Chiefs player props using recent hit rates, current roles and matchup data from the KofSports Player Prop Trends tool.

Our player-prop card includes rushing, passing and receiving markets for tonight's matchup.

→ Read: Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props — 3 Best Bets for MNF

Why We Don't Just Bet the Shortest Anytime TD Odds

Anytime touchdown markets are heavily influenced by a player's expected scoring opportunity.

That's useful information — but the sportsbook price already accounts for much of it.

If one player is -115 and another is +210, the question isn't simply:

Who is more likely to score?

It's:

Is the difference in scoring probability large enough to justify the difference in price?

That's where red-zone usage, overall offensive involvement, matchup and recent production become useful.

The KOF TD Score is designed to help identify those differences.

It isn't a guarantee and it isn't a predicted touchdown probability.

It's another research tool bettors can use to evaluate the market before deciding whether a price is worth playing.

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