Commanders vs Giants Player Props: 3 TNF Picks for November 12

The Washington Commanders visit the New York Giants for Thursday Night Football on November 12, 2026, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium. Our 3 player prop picks focus on receiving opportunities for New York and a rushing workload that has kept Washington’s Rachaad White below his current yardage line.

Isaiah Likely (New York Giants) over 46.5 receiving yards, Malik Nabers (New York Giants) over 67.5 receiving yards, and Rachaad White (Washington Commanders) under 39.5 rushing yards make up the card. Each selection has hit in 4 of the player’s last 5 appearances when those results are compared with the line listed here.

Commanders vs. Giants player prop picks

1. Isaiah Likely (New York Giants): Over 46.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings).
2. Malik Nabers (New York Giants): Over 67.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings).
3. Rachaad White (Washington Commanders): Under 39.5 rushing yards (-116, DraftKings).

Lines reflect the KofSports prop board checked on November 11 for Thursday’s game. Odds and availability can change. The recent hit rates below compare past production with these current thresholds; they are not records against each game’s original closing line.

1. Isaiah Likely (New York Giants) over 46.5 receiving yards

Pick: Over 46.5 receiving yards at -114 on DraftKings.

The combination of recent production and matchup puts Likely first on the list. His latest 5 receiving-yard totals are 53, 12, 99, 94, and 66, according to Isaiah Likely’s game logs. That is 4 of 5 above 46.5 and an average of 64.8 yards. He has exceeded this threshold in 5 of 8 appearances this season.

The underlying opportunities support the yardage. Likely drew 6, 4, 11, 13, and 12 targets in those games, averaging 9.2 targets. His most recent outing produced 5 catches for 53 yards against Philadelphia, giving him a fresh example of clearing this number without needing a 90-yard performance.

Washington allows opposing tight ends 6.1 catches and 68.8 receiving yards per game in our NFL Defense vs. Tight Ends table. Those are totals for the entire position, not a projection for Likely, but they reinforce the matchup opportunity. In the October 11 meeting, he caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards against the Commanders.

The 12-yard Houston game is the caution: his targets dropped to 4, and the yardage followed. We are backing his broader receiving role and a defense he has already produced against, while recognizing that another low-volume game would put the over in danger. He needs 47 receiving yards to cash this line.

2. Malik Nabers (New York Giants) over 67.5 receiving yards

Pick: Over 67.5 receiving yards at -110 on DraftKings.

Nabers’ latest 5 receiving-yard totals are 43, 111, 165, 121, and 112 in Malik Nabers’ game logs. He cleared 67.5 in 4 of 5 and averaged 110.4 yards across that stretch. His season result against this threshold is 5 of 8.

The target counts are just as useful: 8, 9, 15, 20, and 7. That works out to 11.8 targets per appearance. Even in the latest 43-yard game, he received 8 targets and caught 5 passes, so the missed yardage over did not come with a complete disappearance from the passing game.

Washington has allowed opposing wide receivers 13.3 catches and 153.6 receiving yards per game in our NFL Defense vs. Wide Receivers table. Nabers’ own October 11 result against this defense was 11 catches for 121 yards on 20 targets. That is direct matchup evidence, although we should not assume another 20-target night.

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy finished Wednesday as a full participant with no game designation after his hip issue. Nabers also practiced fully and has no game designation on the Giants’ report. That supports the expected passing-game setup, though his recent 43-yard outing shows why volume alone cannot guarantee an over. We like the 68-yard requirement at the listed price.

3. Rachaad White (Washington Commanders) under 39.5 rushing yards

Pick: Under 39.5 rushing yards at -116 on DraftKings.

White’s latest 5 rushing-yard totals are 28, 55, 27, 18, and 35 in Rachaad White’s game logs. He stayed below 39.5 in 4 of those 5 games. The under also hit in 7 of his last 10 appearances and 5 of his 7 games this season when compared with this line.

His carry totals explain the lean: 7, 11, 7, 7, and 8 over the latest 5. That is 8 carries per game, with the lone 55-yard result coming on the largest workload in that sample. At 8 carries, White would need 5.0 yards per carry to reach 40 rushing yards. A workload increase or an explosive run is the main threat to the under.

New York allows 92.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs as a group in our NFL Defense vs. Running Backs table. White managed 18 yards on 7 carries in the October 11 meeting. His limited individual workload is the stronger argument here; we are not treating a team-level defensive average as an individual yardage ceiling.

White also caught 2 passes for 41 yards last week. That receiving production does not count toward a rushing-yard wager, which is why this recommendation is specifically under rushing yards. Washington will be without center Lucas Patrick, adding uncertainty to its offensive-line setup. A sustained increase in White’s carries would weaken the play.

How we are approaching this TNF card

Likely has the strongest combination of recent receiving production and positional matchup. Nabers brings the largest target ceiling, while White’s under is supported by a consistent pattern of modest carry counts. These are individual prop selections. The 2 Giants receiving overs share an exposure to New York’s passing-game performance, so they should not be treated as independent outcomes when considering a parlay.

Compare updated prices, recent results, and opponent trends in our free NFL Player Prop Trends tool. Use the linked player pages to review the full game logs before kickoff.

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Availability was checked against the Giants’ official injury report.

Washington’s offensive-line update comes from its official Week 10 game-status report.