Falcons vs. Packers Anytime TD Scorer Picks: Best TNF Bets

Thursday Night Football opens Week 3 with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EST on Thursday, September 24, and the game total is sitting at 44.5.

With a more modest scoring environment, we're keeping this anytime touchdown card selective. Rather than forcing three or four scorers into the article, we're using the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings to isolate two Green Bay pass catchers who combine plus-money prices with meaningful roles in the Packers offense.

How the KofSports Anytime TD Rankings Work

The KOF TD Score weighs the touchdown market, red-zone opportunity, player usage, recent scoring production, opponent matchup and overall game environment. It is a research ranking designed to compare touchdown candidates; it is not a player's predicted probability of scoring.

For Falcons-Packers, Christian Watson owns the highest KOF TD Score among the plus-money options shown in our current matchup rankings, while Tucker Kraft gives us a second Green Bay scoring angle at nearly 2-to-1. Here are our two favorite Falcons vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer picks for Thursday Night Football.

1. Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+155)

KOF TD Score: 66.7 — Above Average. Best available odds: +155. Market implied probability: 42.5%.

Watson is our favorite touchdown scorer for Thursday night. The biggest reason is that his early-season role and actual scoring production line up with the price: he has scored 3 receiving touchdowns through Green Bay's first 2 games.

He opened the season with 6 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns against Minnesota, then followed it with 4 catches for 41 yards and another touchdown against the Jets. Even more encouraging, Watson drew a team-high 11 targets in Week 2 and now has 19 targets through 2 games. That is the kind of involvement we want when we're getting a plus-money touchdown price.

The matchup offers another reason for interest. Atlanta's secondary is dealing with an early-week injury question around A.J. Terrell who did not participate in Monday's estimated practice report, while Green Bay receiver Jayden Reed was also listed as a non-participant with a neck injury. Those statuses need to be monitored but Watson already enters the matchup as one of Jordan Love's most involved downfield and scoring threats.

We don't need Watson to extend his touchdown streak forever. We need the current +155 price to compensate us for the uncertainty of one game and his combination of 3 touchdowns, 19 targets, and the top plus-money KOF rating in this matchup is enough to make him our No. 1 play.

KofSports Pick: Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+155)

2. Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+195)

KOF TD Score: 62.8 — Average. Best available odds: +195. Market implied probability: 37.0%.

Kraft hasn't scored through the first two games, which is exactly why the price is more interesting. He has 5 catches for 80 yards through two weeks, but his playing-time role remains substantial. In Week 2 against the Jets, Kraft played 52 of Green Bay's 53 offensive snaps and ran a route on 32 of 34 dropbacks.

The touchdown history is stronger than the two-game 2026 sample suggests. Before his 2025 knee injury, Kraft scored 6 touchdowns in 8 regular-season games. He has also scored the first touchdown five times since the beginning of the 2023 season, tied for third-most among NFL tight ends over that span including the playoffs.

Atlanta has also been vulnerable to tight ends early. That doesn't guarantee Kraft gets the scoring opportunity Thursday but his near-every-down Week 2 role keeps him on the field for the possessions that matter. At +195, we don't need a huge receiving game — one Green Bay trip inside the red zone can be enough.

KofSports Pick: Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+195)

Falcons vs. Packers Anytime TD Picks Summary

Christian Watson Anytime TD (+155) — KOF Score 66.7, Above Average, 42.5% market implied probability. Tucker Kraft Anytime TD (+195) — KOF Score 62.8, Average, 37.0% market implied probability. These are the best available prices shown in our Tuesday KofSports rankings snapshot; always recheck the market before betting.

Our Favorite Anytime TD Bet

Christian Watson Anytime TD (+155) is our favorite touchdown scorer bet for Falcons-Packers. He has already scored three times through two games, leads Green Bay with 19 targets and still offers a substantial plus-money return. The KOF rankings also place him ahead of every other plus-money scorer shown from this matchup.

What About Bijan Robinson?

Bijan Robinson absolutely deserves consideration and owns a 63.1 KOF TD Score in our current matchup rankings. The difference is price. Our Tuesday screen has Robinson at -140 with a 60.0% market implied probability, while Watson is +155 and Kraft is +195. With a 44.5-point game total, we're choosing not to manufacture a third touchdown bet simply because Robinson is one of the most likely players to score. This article is about finding the risk/reward profiles we prefer at the available prices.

Research NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers With KofSports

Touchdown betting is about more than simply finding the player with the shortest odds. The free KofSports Anytime TD Rankings combine current market pricing with red-zone involvement, usage, recent scoring production, matchup and game environment to produce the KOF TD Score. Use the rankings alongside Red Zone Targets, Snap Counts and Defense vs. Position to research the full Thursday Night Football board.

More Falcons vs. Packers Player Props

Touchdowns aren't the only markets we're targeting for Thursday Night Football. We've also identified three Falcons vs. Packers player props using the KofSports Player Prop Trends tool. Check out our Falcons vs. Packers Player Props article for the complete breakdown.

Why We Don't Just Bet the Shortest Anytime TD Odds

The shortest touchdown odds usually belong to the player the market considers most likely to score but likelihood and betting value are not the same thing. The price already reflects much of that expected scoring opportunity. Our goal is to compare role, red-zone involvement, matchup and recent production against the return being offered. That's why we're comfortable passing on a shorter-priced option and targeting Watson and Kraft at plus money.

Want More KofSports Picks?

Looking for the complete betting card? KofSports Premium Picks gives members access to our official plays across the NFL, college football, and more. We don't manufacture action on every game; we use data, trends, matchup research and market pricing to identify the opportunities we believe offer the best value.

Final Thoughts

With the Falcons-Packers total at 44.5, two touchdown bets are enough for us. Watson gives us the strongest combination of current scoring production, target volume and KOF rating at +155, while Kraft gives us a nearly 2-to-1 price on a tight end whose playing-time role remains strong and whose touchdown history is better than his first two 2026 games suggest. Recheck odds and injury news before Thursday's 8:15 p.m. EST kickoff.